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THREAD: As an economic staffer in Congress, I’m worried we’re about to watch a slow-motion train wreck.
More than 80,000 Americans are dead.
Unemployment is at Great Depression levels.
Yet, Congress appears prepared to massively undershoot what’s needed. 1/
More than 80,000 Americans are dead.
Unemployment is at Great Depression levels.
Yet, Congress appears prepared to massively undershoot what’s needed. 1/
From up close, it feels like we are sleepwalking toward a gut-wrenching, painful failure. Many are really trying to shake the system awake. But inertia feels like it’s taking us inevitably toward a half-hearted, incoherent response. It’s extremely frustrating. 2/
The stakes are extremely high. Economic failure risks:
-Severe, lasting hardship for tens of millions of people;
-Brutal cutbacks to health care, education, public safety, transportation, basic services;
-Wide-ranging business failures making temporary job loss permanent. 3/
-Severe, lasting hardship for tens of millions of people;
-Brutal cutbacks to health care, education, public safety, transportation, basic services;
-Wide-ranging business failures making temporary job loss permanent. 3/
I do econ policy, so I experience the inability of our political system to rise to the moment most directly in the economic realm, but it does not take any health policy expertise to see the dysfunction infecting the public health response in a more immediately lethal manner. 4/
With a political system already buckling under the accumulation of decades of extreme partisanship, tens of thousands of additional preventable deaths followed by another Great Recession also carries with it the risk of societal breakdown. 5/
The dysfunction is not symmetrical. The modern-day Republican Party’s implosion has been decades in the making. Trump is simply the apotheosis of long-running moral and intellectual decay, symptom not cause. The logical conclusion of anything-goes negative partisanship. 6/
Even after 11 years of contending with appallingly destructive GOP behavior, I’m stunned by what I’m seeing. Usually you can trust McConnell to do what’s in his party’s self-interest. Right now, even that intuition does not seem to anchor their actions. All bets are off. 7/
Republicans control the White House & Senate. They’ll be held accountable for COVID-19 outcomes. Though out of power, Democrats feel the onus to govern; we don’t use people as bargaining chips. That should mean Congress acts boldly and quickly. 8/
Yet, McConnell and the Administration are ready to block relief that would avert unnecessary pain. Their stated excuse? The risks posed by rising deficits. As if those risks – distant and uncertain – outweigh the risks of the immediate and inevitable brutality of this crisis. 9/
I fundamentally do not understand it, even as bargaining strategy. By anchoring negotiations at effectively “No economic support but liability immunity for businesses is my opening bid,” McConnell is ensuring that even when something passes, it will be woefully insufficient. 10/
McConnell’s hostage-taking and extremism even risks limiting the ambition of Democrats’ opening offer. Instead of proposing the “right answer” policy, at the scope and scale of the challenge, I fear we are likely to underdo our ask in the hope of appearing more “reasonable.” 11/
If Dems start at half a loaf, Republicans will cut that in half (or more) too.
Due to “cost concerns” we risk underdoing unemployment benefits, housing, food assistance, health care.
Instead of tying support to economic conditions, they’ll have an arbitrary sunset. 12/
Due to “cost concerns” we risk underdoing unemployment benefits, housing, food assistance, health care.
Instead of tying support to economic conditions, they’ll have an arbitrary sunset. 12/
The prevailing logic is that we’ll do more later if conditions dictate. I’m not so sure, given where the GOP is now. And if we’re going to come back for more when conditions dictate, why not just tie the support to those conditions? It’s as if we’ve learned nothing from 2009. 13/
If we are tying policy to indicators that turn out to be imperfect, we can improve the precision later if we presume the ability to act.
If gridlock prevails instead, then artificial end-dates mean ending support entirely way before this crisis ends. 14/
If gridlock prevails instead, then artificial end-dates mean ending support entirely way before this crisis ends. 14/
I’ve seen ugly policymaking, but I’ve never been so dejected. Congress appears to be on its way to passing a half-assed bill that underachieves on public health, families/workers, state/local governments, businesses. And that insufficient support will cut off too soon. 15/
I hope I’m wrong, but this feels inevitable. I don’t see how the dynamic changes much. I see Republicans becoming increasingly dug in around cost concerns that make very little sense.
The cost of insufficient action is devastating.
I don’t know what else to say. 16/16
The cost of insufficient action is devastating.
I don’t know what else to say. 16/16
