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+UPDATE+
UK govt caves into US demands to keep any news, minutes or reports from the US-UK trade deal negotiations secret until at least “5 years AFTER the trade deal negotiated”.
Congratulations everyone!
We’ve just lost any control we once had. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-accused-of-caving-to-us-trade-demands_uk_5eb16d59c5b60a9277823f3e">https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-...
UK govt caves into US demands to keep any news, minutes or reports from the US-UK trade deal negotiations secret until at least “5 years AFTER the trade deal negotiated”.
Congratulations everyone!
We’ve just lost any control we once had. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-accused-of-caving-to-us-trade-demands_uk_5eb16d59c5b60a9277823f3e">https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-...
2/ +UPDATE+
Washington pressuring UK to include a clause in any future US-UK trade deal that would allow the US to retreat from trade deal obligations...
...if UK signs a trade deal with any country the US does not approve of.
“Taking back control”. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/12/us-message-to-britain-in-bilateral-trade-talks-its-us-or-china">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/...
Washington pressuring UK to include a clause in any future US-UK trade deal that would allow the US to retreat from trade deal obligations...
...if UK signs a trade deal with any country the US does not approve of.
“Taking back control”. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/12/us-message-to-britain-in-bilateral-trade-talks-its-us-or-china">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/...
3/
There was no UK growth last quarter 2019.
Economy shrank by 2% in 1st quarter 2020 - when lockdown only started last few days of 1st quarter.
Clearly UK economy will plummet by 15+% in next two quarters.
So no deal Brexit will arrive after effectively a year long recession.
There was no UK growth last quarter 2019.
Economy shrank by 2% in 1st quarter 2020 - when lockdown only started last few days of 1st quarter.
Clearly UK economy will plummet by 15+% in next two quarters.
So no deal Brexit will arrive after effectively a year long recession.
4/
Looking at these figures clear that 2019-2022 will mark a reordering of the UK as a weakened state with an economy at mediocre EU GDP per capita levels, with little international clout & a heavily damaged reputation.
It’s going to take a lot of nationalism to hide this.
Looking at these figures clear that 2019-2022 will mark a reordering of the UK as a weakened state with an economy at mediocre EU GDP per capita levels, with little international clout & a heavily damaged reputation.
It’s going to take a lot of nationalism to hide this.
5/
UK’s saving grace last 40 years (once oil ran out) has been the tax-cash generating monster that is London. Finance, tourism, services & place to park money. If Brexit even remotely damages London as financial hub then we’re in deep sh*t in a post COVID-damaged tourism world.
UK’s saving grace last 40 years (once oil ran out) has been the tax-cash generating monster that is London. Finance, tourism, services & place to park money. If Brexit even remotely damages London as financial hub then we’re in deep sh*t in a post COVID-damaged tourism world.
6/
So here’s where we are:
In middle of a pandemic that’s destroying the international trade dependent UK economy & obliterating UKs 2nd biggest industry - tourism.
The UK is just weeks away from ripping up its entire trade system with nothing to replace it.
What’s the plan?
So here’s where we are:
In middle of a pandemic that’s destroying the international trade dependent UK economy & obliterating UKs 2nd biggest industry - tourism.
The UK is just weeks away from ripping up its entire trade system with nothing to replace it.
What’s the plan?
7/
Many people - both Brexiters & remainers - buying into myth that Coronavirus will somehow “hide” Brexit damage.
I now think this is completely misguided.
This works in a small economic dip - but the nature of catastrophe ALREADY hitting UK will leave no hiding place.
Many people - both Brexiters & remainers - buying into myth that Coronavirus will somehow “hide” Brexit damage.
I now think this is completely misguided.
This works in a small economic dip - but the nature of catastrophe ALREADY hitting UK will leave no hiding place.
8/
What many didn’t get is that COVID crisis now so large the ideological dam burst & it’s clear majority of the electorate believe govt has to take more “interventionist responsibility” - once this happens everyone will demand their industry/region protected.
So...
What many didn’t get is that COVID crisis now so large the ideological dam burst & it’s clear majority of the electorate believe govt has to take more “interventionist responsibility” - once this happens everyone will demand their industry/region protected.
So...
9/
The very notion of global buccaneering Brexit dead on arrival.
Future now belongs to parties able to convince electorate they can bring back the good times of 2000s (don’t laugh).
Brexiters will still “culturally despise” remainers but it’ll be the “economy stupid” again.
The very notion of global buccaneering Brexit dead on arrival.
Future now belongs to parties able to convince electorate they can bring back the good times of 2000s (don’t laugh).
Brexiters will still “culturally despise” remainers but it’ll be the “economy stupid” again.
10/
So 2023 where’s the UK?
Weakened with a population that doesn’t give a damm for ideology anymore.
It wants solutions fast & a return to economic growth, competence & normality.
But most of all is nostalgic....for the recent past.
This only leads to one place...
/ends
So 2023 where’s the UK?
Weakened with a population that doesn’t give a damm for ideology anymore.
It wants solutions fast & a return to economic growth, competence & normality.
But most of all is nostalgic....for the recent past.
This only leads to one place...
/ends
