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This is a interesting argument but I think is overly pessimistic.
What we've seen so far in the US is actually fairly widespread compliance with public health directives and support for maintaining them. https://twitter.com/KeithNHumphreys/status/1259828752516706304
What we've seen so far in the US is actually fairly widespread compliance with public health directives and support for maintaining them. https://twitter.com/KeithNHumphreys/status/1259828752516706304
Most of the polling on stay-home orders and similar measures shows this. This Kaiser poll suggests 80% support, others have shown 60%+. https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/kff-health-tracking-poll-late-april-2020/
And in fact, a lot of the public adherence to those measures was spontaneous and actually preceded state/local governments imposing them. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-didnt-wait-for-their-governors-to-tell-them-to-stay-home-because-of-covid-19/
So I think it's reasonable to expect that while there may be some resistance to tracing and quarantine, the majority of people will accept it.
Especially if their local leaders own the implementation and explain the necessity, as they have with distancing measures.
Especially if their local leaders own the implementation and explain the necessity, as they have with distancing measures.
But that does raise a concern about how the minority who resist contact tracing might be politically instrumentalized.
Similar to the reopening protests, will this minority of people get amplified by public figures for political ends?
Similar to the reopening protests, will this minority of people get amplified by public figures for political ends?
And this is where the lack of White House advocacy for contact tracing is worrying. Presidential endorsement of contact tracing will carry a lot of weight with folks who might otherwise resist.
In lieu of that I fear we'll end up with a national patchwork, which - while considerably better than nothing - will not limit transmission as much as a more consistent national approach could achieve.
Lastly, it's unfair (though often fashionable) to portray public health experts as ignorant of socio-political dynamics.
In fact we're all too aware; we navigate them everywhere. Suspicion and mistrust are not unique to the US - try running contact tracing in Congo some time.
In fact we're all too aware; we navigate them everywhere. Suspicion and mistrust are not unique to the US - try running contact tracing in Congo some time.
