[Thread] I’ve been thinking about the dynamics of the police response to the HK protests in recent days and how dramatically it has changed since last year. I think the last 11 months of protests can be divided into two distinct phases.

From June to November, we essentially witnessed a straightforward protest spiral. The government was unwilling to give in to any of the demands (with the eventual exception of withdrawing the bill), leading to increased militarization of both sides and an escalation in tactics.

The culmination of this escalation was the siege of campuses in November, first at CU and then at PolyU. The students and protesters were clearly ready for a fight and the police dramatically escalated their approach, including mass arresting first aiders and HR observers.

Violence wasn’t contained to unis but spilled out into the streets as people coming to the aid of occupying students were met with quite dramatic police response. Recall the Yau Ma Tei “stampede” which saw ~30 people hospitalized and firefighters contradicting the HKPF account.

The immediate aftermath of the campus sieges was of course the District Council Elections, which saw an overwhelming victory for the pro-democracy camp, a historical record turnout, and an end to the “silent majority” narrative used by the government.

With December as a sort of in-between period, with one major protest that was largely left untouched by the police, what we have seen in 2020 so far hasn’t really looked like a protest spiral at all. The last five months have been much more one-sided.

Some of this is obviously due to the pandemic and the protest movement going “underground” in a sense, to avoid spreading COVID. But even the million+ march in early January saw a dramatic and sudden police response, as they forcefully dispersed crowds on the thinnest of grounds.

Since then any manifestation of protest sentiments have been met with rapid and violent responses. The police are out in force every time, arresting and brutalizing people. This is not, as before, a response to perceived escalation of tactics on behalf of protesters.

In no universe is this about meeting force with force. As the past couple of weeks have shown, nobody is safe when the police decide to shut down a sing-along or even a tiny recruitment drive by pro-dem unions. Journos are consistently targeted and no heed is paid to bystanders.

Again, this isn’t in itself that different from last year. What’s different is the extreme one-sidedness of it all. Even the most devoted wumao or blue ribbon are finding it difficult to justify this behavior without reminding people of events that took place 7 months ago.

There are many reasons why the HKPF might be behaving this way. The most obvious, to me, is that what we’ve expected for a while is true: The HK gov’t is essentially sidelined and orders are coming straight from the Liaison Office, which has rapped up its rhetoric and involvement

The very fact of impunity also seems to play a role. There is no consequence for bad policing in relation to protests, so why should they stop? The answer is obviously that they need to exist in the very society they are brutalizing, but such concerns went out the window ages ago

Regardless of the reasons, my main point is that the dynamics of the social and political conflict have changed. We are no longer witnessing a protest spiral of escalating tactics on both sides, but a one-sided crackdown. This extends to LegCo as well, as was made clear last week

And just in case it needed to be said: None of this is to excuse or justify police behavior at any point during the protest. As I've said before, police brutality has been rampant and unchecked from the beginning. But I think the shift in dynamics is notable, and worrying.