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Hi! 
My PhD was in virology. Here's my dreary Hot Take about Boris' speech, govt' strategy, and the tedious #cheersBoris-vs- #borisHasFailedBritain hashtags doing battle rn apparently (I was recording a lecture tonight so missed all the brouhaha..)
Thread: [1/n]
My PhD was in virology. Here's my dreary Hot Take about Boris' speech, govt' strategy, and the tedious #cheersBoris-vs- #borisHasFailedBritain hashtags doing battle rn apparently (I was recording a lecture tonight so missed all the brouhaha..)
Thread: [1/n]
(admin first: My PhD was in the evolution of RNA viruses - HIV, not CV - but it was a decade ago, and I've largely since moved into bacterial stuff. I'm not defending OR championing the Tories here. Also, I'm a [dad/son/Saints fan/human] as well as a scientist so pls #BeKind)
3/
3/
This was an impossible task for BJ: There is no such thing as a 'perfect' strategy out of lockdown.
Unknown:
* We still don't know if acquired immunity is effective, or lasting;
* We don't really know community prevalence;
* We don't have ANY idea how long this will go on.. 3/
Unknown:
* We still don't know if acquired immunity is effective, or lasting;
* We don't really know community prevalence;
* We don't have ANY idea how long this will go on.. 3/
We *do* however have a fairly good idea of the costs - and I'm talking in genuine, statistically-attributable, earlier-than-necessary, DEATHS here - of economic contraction. They are not trivial. They run to thousands a week, too. 4/
There's no point wringing your hands and insisting 'every death from CV is a tragic death too many', while also (effectively) insisting 'premature deaths due to economic collapse aren't important'. This is a horrible, macabre, sick trade-off. A classic Trolley Problem 5/
However, governments aren't philosophers. We elect them to make decisions, wide-ranging and hard ones, where there *are* no simple answers. You and I might disagree. But don't claim there's a knowable, 'correct' path out: there isn't.
HOWEVER: A Decision Was Needed.
Why...? 6/
HOWEVER: A Decision Was Needed.
Why...? 6/
There are large numbers of people, maybe millions, for whom the social, or financial effort involved in the current lockdown was becoming unmanageable. Lockdown was about to unravel, chaotically, anyway. Mass civil disobedience would've left CV booming.
7/
7/
Some people will now tell me the police should just fine/lock up millions of people to enforce The Rules. Or track offenders with GPS. Or summarily 'neuter stupid bastards being selfish' (I thought y'all supported Amnesty... no??)
News for you: democracies run off consent. 8/
News for you: democracies run off consent. 8/
To recognise that mass adherence to an indefinite lockdown through a hot summer with no plan or end in sight became untenable isn't being cowed by the mob; it's an acceptance of reality.
Lefties ought to remember there was also lots of brake-pedal stuff in the speech too... 9/
Lefties ought to remember there was also lots of brake-pedal stuff in the speech too... 9/
We largely didn't pick up on them in Lefty Twitterworld (because they weren't aimed at us) but to millions of self-employed Mail-toting Self Made Business Blokes, constant references to 'guided by science', 'phased levels', 'ifs' and (worst of all), 'conditionality' irked too
10/
10/
In other words, anger to the speech - in isolation - alone just illustrates the incredible balancing act the PM needed to pull tonight.
There needs to be much, much, much more detail this week, and fine-tuned messaging to specific groups, and OF COURSE regular review... 11/
There needs to be much, much, much more detail this week, and fine-tuned messaging to specific groups, and OF COURSE regular review... 11/
(BTW: I wouldn't be surprised if the CV Alert Level symbolically goes up as well as down in the next fortnight - to underscore the 'conditionality' part of this to ppl who'd rather normal life just kicked off. Having 'an' Alert Level to play about with now, they can)
12/
12/
... and fortunately, I can continue to protect myself and my family (and advise my friends if they want) so the direct risk TO ME will not really change.
Work is more complex - but that's the point. A Wobbly Covid Exit Plan System is infinitely better than 'no plan at all'.
13/
Work is more complex - but that's the point. A Wobbly Covid Exit Plan System is infinitely better than 'no plan at all'.
13/
We can't carry on with either:
"Stay in indefinite lockdown forever, forget the economy"
or
"Fuck it, go bowling, forget coronavirus"
as the only options. This plan gives us inbetweens. Nuance. Clarity. All things I thought #brexit had made us yearn for in our leaders.
/14
"Stay in indefinite lockdown forever, forget the economy"
or
"Fuck it, go bowling, forget coronavirus"
as the only options. This plan gives us inbetweens. Nuance. Clarity. All things I thought #brexit had made us yearn for in our leaders.
/14
Do I *personally* agree with all of the plan?
Do I think the messaging was perfect?
Am I about to start snogging randoms?
No.
But was this 'about' as realistic and robust a plan as we might have expected?
Probably.
Stay home if you can. Be f**** careful where you can't.
/END
Do I think the messaging was perfect?
Am I about to start snogging randoms?
No.
But was this 'about' as realistic and robust a plan as we might have expected?
Probably.
Stay home if you can. Be f**** careful where you can't.
/END
