1) Ok, now that @realDonaldTrump has tweeted #Obamagate we have to factor this into the timing of everything.

2) Since 2016, Trump has gone to great lengths to prove himself to black voters.

3) Unless you're in the Hoax News, it is undeniable he is making some headway.
4) How much is the question. @SHEPMJS has tracked black approval of Trump at 16-25% across the board, consistently.
@EdAsante77 argues that Trump won't get anywhere near that.

5) I split the difference and say give him half actual vote for each 1 point approval, or 13%.
6) But I also say, and @SHEPMJS I think agrees, that the "stay-at-home" vote, which in 2016 was 3% over 2012 in NC, FL, PA, and probably MI, was critical in Trump's election.

7) A 3% stay-at-home (can we say, "Shelter in place?") = just over 100,000 votes in FL.
8) Trump won FL by about 113,000 votes!

9) If the 13% is a Trump "floor" with an additional 3-5% who "shelter in place," the real net number for Trump is 14.5% to 15.5%.

10) That's absolutely huge. It would bring many states into play. But that's not my point here.
11) My point is #Obamagate. I think Trump will tread carefully on going after Zero personally before the election. It might be enough to steer many black voters back to the DemoKKKrats or change the "shelter in place" choice.

12) Don't get me wrong: the fact that . . .
12) President Trump used this hashtag is vitally important.

He knows. Zero now knows he knows.

13) Trump will steadily increase pressure, but I don't think he would take on Zero too directly before the election.

14) It's a slow build of education & information that so far . .
15) contd . . . is working.

16) No one has been arrested yet. But aside from Hoax News, I think it's dawning on uninformed Americans how incredibly dirty Zero and his henchmen were.
You can follow @LarrySchweikart.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: