Um

I think someone needs to explain R0 and reproductive rates to him again.

If you want to read something that does makes sense, knock yourself out.

https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1259441470618001409?s=21 https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1259441470618001409

On the other hand this is pretty good.

Germany has reimposed restrictions after a lightening of them a week or so ago. Despite far more extensive testing their positives are below ours (171k). Positives today 456. Deaths 11 (7.5k total)

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1259476471925690368?s=21

UK= In the last 7 days there have been 32,484 +ve tests.

For that week alone - On the current fatality rate (14.54%) -4,747 people could be expected to die.

Of course, as testing broadens the cohort being tested may be younger/ fitter/less likely to die than previous cohorts.

In the last week we had 6957 deaths and those are on the ones following a positive test in a PH/NHS Lab so not Pillar 2 tests (lots of care homes).

That is 600 deaths short of Germany’s entire total.

And we are loosening lockdown.

How is that RO looking compared to Germany?