If you& #39;re new to #Uranium Bull Market
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Ox" aria-label="Emoji: Ox">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Chart with upwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with upwards trend"> Tribeca& #39;s Guy Keller recently walked #investors thru
the story
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π§βπΌ" title="Office worker" aria-label="Emoji: Office worker"> beginning today where world& #39;s best performing YTD commodity #U3O8 is up 36%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Rocket" aria-label="Emoji: Rocket"> amidst #COVID19 #SupplyShock
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="‡οΈ" title="Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards" aria-label="Emoji: Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards"> while #Nuclear demand remains "relatively stable"
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="β‘οΈ" title="High voltage sign" aria-label="Emoji: High voltage sign">..
the story
2) Lead-up to #Uranium Bull run was 3+ years of supply destruction
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="βοΈ" title="South east arrow" aria-label="Emoji: South east arrow"> including 20% cut for 3yrs by largest #U3O8 miner $KAP & indefinite closure of world& #39;s largest U mine, Cameco& #39;s McArthur/Key.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Factory" aria-label="Emoji: Factory"> #COVID19 has triggered more mine suspensions, cutting >50% of monthly supply
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3) Supply cuts in other commodities have historically caused large price corrections
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="‴οΈ" title="Arrow pointing rightwards then curving upwards" aria-label="Emoji: Arrow pointing rightwards then curving upwards"> needed to trigger production to meet demand. Supply in #uranium is not elastic & price increase is just first hurdle.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Horse racing" aria-label="Emoji: Horse racing"> Spot #U3O8 price is up over 80% since 2016 low but more to come.
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4) For over 2 years there& #39;ve been many "handbrakes" slowing market response to #Uranium supply cuts.. US #Section232 & subsequent #Nuclear Fuel Working Group sent utility buyers to sidelines, then 2020 #COVID19 market crash.. but now those are released & trend has turned up!
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5) #COVID19 sent shockwaves thru #Uranium mining sector, leading to indefinite suspension of all production in #Canada, a 17.5% cut in #Kazakhstan & stoppages in #Namibia resulting in over 50% of global monthly #U3O8 production disrupted
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="‡οΈ" title="Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards" aria-label="Emoji: Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards"> = 12% global supply destruction ...
6) Since 2013 there have been a long series of #Uranium mine supply cuts & #U3O8 mines placed into long term Care & Maintenance.
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="βοΈ" title="South east arrow" aria-label="Emoji: South east arrow"> To bring production back will require U prices in excess of US$45/lb at a minimum, plus significant Capital
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π°" title="Money bag" aria-label="Emoji: Money bag"> & signed long-term contracts
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7) 2019 Global #Uranium production was close to 135M lbs #U3O8 (vs #Nuclear fuel requirement of nearly 200M lbs) but #COVID19 #SupplyShock
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="β‘οΈ" title="High voltage sign" aria-label="Emoji: High voltage sign"> is cutting 2020 production estimate to 110M lbs
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="‡οΈ" title="Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards" aria-label="Emoji: Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards"> deepening deficit heading to 2 permanent mine closures in 2021, Ranger & Cominak.
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8) In 2019 the World #Nuclear Association, for first time in 10 years, modelled #Uranium demand increases in all 3 of its #U3O8 demand scenarios to 2040.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="βοΈ" title="North east arrow" aria-label="Emoji: North east arrow"> Today there are 450 reactors in operation, 54 more under construction, 111/328 more planned/proposed = Growth story.
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9) With 2020 #uranium production at 110M lbs, #nuclear demand near 200M lbs, utilities have been depleting inventory for many years & must now begin a restocking cycle
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Shopping cart" aria-label="Emoji: Shopping cart"> to cover future fuel needs & replenish stockpiles simultaneous with demand from new reactors = #SupplyRisk
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10) #China is leading #Nuclear growth & #Uranium demand, aided by rising global #CarbonFree #electricity demand in an age of #ClimateChange & #ExtremeWeather.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Cyclone" aria-label="Emoji: Cyclone"> Renewables "fantasy" has failed miserably, making Nuclear best #CarbonFree tool in global #CleanEnergy tool box
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11) Lastly, Global supply of "available" #uranium inventory has shrunk, #U3O8 Spot supply is now tight
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="ποΈ" title="Compression" aria-label="Emoji: Compression">& U3O8 Bull Market is underway
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="π" title="Rocket" aria-label="Emoji: Rocket"> on a >80% price rise since 2016... BUT #uranium #stocks have fallen way behind & need to rebound an average +255% to catch up with Spot price
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