Quick thread on why it's so stupid to say Mesut Ozil only had one good season at Arsenal:

Obviously everyone knows about Mesut Ozil's 2015/16 season, which is arguably the greatest playmaking season in Premier League history.

25 g/a in a team that only scored 65 league goals, meaning he was alone directly involved in over 38% of Arsenal's goals.

But since people say he's been 'finished' since then, I decided to take a look.

To be honest, I believe Ozil is past his best, but mostly that seems to be because of how quickly he went from world class to barely average under Emery.

But in his last 3 years under Arsene Wenger, I always thought he was great. So I looked at 15/16-17/18 and decided to compare him to who I consider the best player in the league during that period, Kevin De Bruyne.

So I tweeted this earlier: https://twitter.com/Mansoor98A/status/1259538640088313861?s=19

Let's look at the numbers before I dive into context:

Ozil
0.6 xG+xA per 90
0.59 G+A per 90

De Bruyne
0.61 xG+xA per 90
0.7 G+A per 90

Now, the context:

At first look, they post similar expected numbers, but KDB pulls ahead in actual output (note, both numbers are very high for any midfielders to be posting). This means either he's a better finisher, or his teammates are better finishers.

Looking into the numbers, he does slightly outperform his xG (suggesting a good finisher) but a larger difference comes in his xA, suggesting his teammates also play a big role in him outperforming expected numbers.

So let's explain that, while we look into the teams they played for through those 3 seasons.

Arsenal
Total xG: 209.38
Total G: 216

City
Total xG: 237.48
Total G: 257

So Man City clearly are a team overall create more chances and score more goals than Arsenal.

To look at finishing, I calculated the % of the team's xG that was scored. Above 100% means above average finishing across the whole team, and the higher the better.

Arsenal: 103.1%
City: 108.2%

So indeed, City are better finishers, which can explain KDB outperforming his xA

But let's look at how these 2 playmakers contribute to their teams offensively.

Per match:
Arsenal xG: 1.84
Arsenal G: 1.89

City xG: 2.08
City G: 2.25

So, how much does each player contribute to these numbers?

Ozil xG contribution: 32.67%
Ozil G contribution: 31.13%

KDB xG contribution: 29.28%
KDB G contribution: 31.05%

Ozil's actually involved in more of Arsenal's chances than KDB is for City.

Chances KDB is involved in actually get finished at a slightly higher rate than City's as a team then, but we did say he was a slightly above average finisher. Ozil, an average finisher, doesn't have much difference between xG and G contribution.

But the point is this: both players during this 3 year period contributed to almost ONE THIRD of their teams goals. Their offensive numbers are by and large similar, with one clearly having a better team around him.
I'm not saying Ozil was better, but both were world class then.