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Quick thread on why it's so stupid to say Mesut Ozil only had one good season at Arsenal:
Obviously everyone knows about Mesut Ozil's 2015/16 season, which is arguably the greatest playmaking season in Premier League history.
25 g/a in a team that only scored 65 league goals, meaning he was alone directly involved in over 38% of Arsenal's goals.
25 g/a in a team that only scored 65 league goals, meaning he was alone directly involved in over 38% of Arsenal's goals.
But since people say he's been 'finished' since then, I decided to take a look.
To be honest, I believe Ozil is past his best, but mostly that seems to be because of how quickly he went from world class to barely average under Emery.
To be honest, I believe Ozil is past his best, but mostly that seems to be because of how quickly he went from world class to barely average under Emery.
But in his last 3 years under Arsene Wenger, I always thought he was great. So I looked at 15/16-17/18 and decided to compare him to who I consider the best player in the league during that period, Kevin De Bruyne.
So I tweeted this earlier: https://twitter.com/Mansoor98A/status/1259538640088313861?s=19
So I tweeted this earlier: https://twitter.com/Mansoor98A/status/1259538640088313861?s=19
Let's look at the numbers before I dive into context:
Ozil
0.6 xG+xA per 90
0.59 G+A per 90
De Bruyne
0.61 xG+xA per 90
0.7 G+A per 90
Ozil
0.6 xG+xA per 90
0.59 G+A per 90
De Bruyne
0.61 xG+xA per 90
0.7 G+A per 90
Now, the context:
At first look, they post similar expected numbers, but KDB pulls ahead in actual output (note, both numbers are very high for any midfielders to be posting). This means either he's a better finisher, or his teammates are better finishers.
At first look, they post similar expected numbers, but KDB pulls ahead in actual output (note, both numbers are very high for any midfielders to be posting). This means either he's a better finisher, or his teammates are better finishers.
Looking into the numbers, he does slightly outperform his xG (suggesting a good finisher) but a larger difference comes in his xA, suggesting his teammates also play a big role in him outperforming expected numbers.
So let's explain that, while we look into the teams they played for through those 3 seasons.
Arsenal
Total xG: 209.38
Total G: 216
City
Total xG: 237.48
Total G: 257
So Man City clearly are a team overall create more chances and score more goals than Arsenal.
Arsenal
Total xG: 209.38
Total G: 216
City
Total xG: 237.48
Total G: 257
So Man City clearly are a team overall create more chances and score more goals than Arsenal.
To look at finishing, I calculated the % of the team's xG that was scored. Above 100% means above average finishing across the whole team, and the higher the better.
Arsenal: 103.1%
City: 108.2%
So indeed, City are better finishers, which can explain KDB outperforming his xA
Arsenal: 103.1%
City: 108.2%
So indeed, City are better finishers, which can explain KDB outperforming his xA
But let's look at how these 2 playmakers contribute to their teams offensively.
Per match:
Arsenal xG: 1.84
Arsenal G: 1.89
City xG: 2.08
City G: 2.25
So, how much does each player contribute to these numbers?
Per match:
Arsenal xG: 1.84
Arsenal G: 1.89
City xG: 2.08
City G: 2.25
So, how much does each player contribute to these numbers?
Ozil xG contribution: 32.67%
Ozil G contribution: 31.13%
KDB xG contribution: 29.28%
KDB G contribution: 31.05%
Ozil's actually involved in more of Arsenal's chances than KDB is for City.
Ozil G contribution: 31.13%
KDB xG contribution: 29.28%
KDB G contribution: 31.05%
Ozil's actually involved in more of Arsenal's chances than KDB is for City.
Chances KDB is involved in actually get finished at a slightly higher rate than City's as a team then, but we did say he was a slightly above average finisher. Ozil, an average finisher, doesn't have much difference between xG and G contribution.
But the point is this: both players during this 3 year period contributed to almost ONE THIRD of their teams goals. Their offensive numbers are by and large similar, with one clearly having a better team around him.
I'm not saying Ozil was better, but both were world class then.
I'm not saying Ozil was better, but both were world class then.
