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From someone that makes pace and speed figures for a living, and for 25 years before that for my own use, I remind all that merely betting the fastest recent figures is not a way to win in this game.
In my opinion, you win by predicting horses that are going to run better than they have been. Speed figures are a great tool to help with that but not the only one. Quick example, there were 16 races at GP and Tam on Friday where the winner was running back on the same surface.
Four of the winners actually declined slightly on TimeformUS Speed Figures, between 1 and 4 points. Those winners average paying $4.60. Five more winners improved between 1 and 5 points. Those winners averaged paying$6.32. In both cases, the median was about the same.
The remaining seven winners improved between 6 and 21 points. The average payoff for those horses was $19.51, median of $14.20. Those are the horses you want to find.
This is just one day, but it holds long term and is true of most speed figures out there, not just TimeformUS.
This is just one day, but it holds long term and is true of most speed figures out there, not just TimeformUS.
Lots of things can lead to improved numbers...bad trips last time, against bias, new rider this time, new trainer, young horse development, etc. There are many more.
Of course this works the other way too. Learn which horses are likely to regress that have the best numbers too!
Of course this works the other way too. Learn which horses are likely to regress that have the best numbers too!
