I had been puzzling about that gap between approval and horse-race numbers in the past couple weeks, and I then realized the answer lies in a simple point I always like to make to people, ... https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1259471817707831296

... which is that when you see, say, 42% approving of Trump, that breaks down to people who say they “somewhat” approve (ballpark 17%) and the he-can-shoot-someone-on-Fifth hardcore who say they “strongly” approve (let’s assume 25%).

And he’s losing the former. They somewhat approve of him for various reasons—maybe because judges or because taxes or because wall or because whatever—but they don’t fully approve because deep down they know he’s a jackass, idiot, crackpot, or all of the above.

And they can be peeled off if forced to focus on what disturbs them about @realDonaldTrump, and if given a palatable choice.

@ProjectLincoln is working on the peeling—in part by making sure these folks focus on what disturbs them about Trump.