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The coronavirus will be with us for the foreseeable future. “Exactly how long,” one epidemiologist said, “remains to be seen.” Here’s what two recent analyses say about the shape the pandemic might take in the coming months. https://nyti.ms/2Lcyr4y
An analysis from the University of Minnesota describes three possible scenarios for the future of the pandemic. http://nyti.ms/2Lcyr4y
Another analysis from Harvard’s Chan School examines intermittent social distancing — turned “on” when Covid-19 cases reach a certain prevalence in the population, and “off” when prevalence drops. http://nyti.ms/2Lcyr4y
Seasonal effects could slow the spread of the virus in warmer months, but this year the effect will likely be minimal because many people are still susceptible. http://nyti.ms/2Lcyr4y
Doubling hospital critical-care capacity could allow even longer breaks between periods of social distancing. http://nyti.ms/2Lcyr4y
What’s clear: A one-time social distancing effort won’t be sufficient to control the coronavirus, and it will take a long time to reach herd immunity. Without an effective vaccine, our pandemic state of mind may persist well into 2021 or 2022. http://nyti.ms/2Lcyr4y
“We anticipated a prolonged period of social distancing would be necessary,” said one researcher, “but didn’t initially realize that it could be this long.” http://nyti.ms/2Lcyr4y
