The President and his allies are agitating for things to go back to “normal”, but that’s not how this is going to work. There are events that split our histories into before and after, and COVID-19 appears to be just such a divide.

A THREAD on Our Future History 1/ https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1259457460903051264

That makes this calamity an unquestionable threat, but also an undeniable opportunity. The world will change, and we get to decide what it will become.

It starts with being honest about what we face. 2/

Like a squalling babe, the age of this pandemic can still be measured in weeks. The necessary global delivery of a vaccine—if one can be created—will be measured in years. 3/

We stand at the precipice of perhaps the greatest economic and political crisis in the history of our nation.

If the second wave of the pandemic hits as expected, it is likely that we will go off the edge. 4/

As they must, our politicians assure us that we shall endure, as if our survival were simply written in the stars. But the truth is that there is no celestial assurance of our victory in this fight or any other. 5/

The stars have stood silent watch over the rise and fall of empires and nations beyond reckoning. Nothing guarantees us a better outcome. 6/

When states *have* survived calamity, they have managed it on a fortifying cocktail of hope, determination, preparation, and just dumb luck. And while we may not be able to control the last of these ingredients, we can certainly control the rest. 7/

This is why we must begin now, even in the present darkness, to begin kindling the light of the future we will have when this is over. 8/

Some people will fixate on the familiar comfort of the past. They brandish their guns and flags (American, Confederate, and otherwise) on the steps of state capitols, protesting that the wheels of our virus-locked economy should be allowed to turn. 9/

The old may need to die, such folks say. A million of our children in coffins is “appetizing,” says Dr Oz. America’s gods of gold demand a lung-choked sacrifice, and those hastening to give it to them know nothing else. 10/

But is that the future we want? 11/

Many of us have likened COVID-19 to a war enemy, relying on our communal, patriotic spirit to help us survive. We talk if scientists and doctors on the “frontlines,” building a jerry-rigged antiviral Manhattan Project. 12/

Like kids donating the rubber wheels from their wagons to the scrap drives of World War Two, we participate in lockdowns and social distancing just trying to buy our fighters time. 13/

But while war is an easy metaphor in such times, it can only go so far. It cannot provide much hope, much less a plan. We cannot cede to COVID-19 the modern equivalent of the Sudetenland and think we can walk away with peace in our time. 14/

A virus, like a narcissistic sociopath, cannot be appeased. Political posturing won’t save us. Bullying and blustering won’t either. There’s no way to spin this kind of carnage into a win. 15/

And those waving their guns around on the steps of capitols are shouting “Molon labe” at Death. Bullets can’t stop a virus. They’ll get the same answer their beloved Spartans got from the Persians at Thermopylae: a pyre, and heaven will swallow the smoke. 16/

We will not find our future in the past. 17/

And even if we nevertheless liken this to a war, we must remember that body counts are a profoundly insufficient gauge of conflict outcomes in military history. 18/

Death is an easy measuring stick (one that increasingly shows our response to be wildly inadequate), but it fails to capture not just the grave consequences of those wounded in body, mind, or soul, but also the broader systemic shocks of what it takes to be in such fights. 19/

If our worst fears are realized, it may be that there will be no return to normal, no more than there was for the men who came back from the Somme or those who welcomed them to a home that militarization had made unrecognizable. 20/

So what will be our future, our new normal? 21/

A few days ago, writer @cstross posited a future timeline of “civil disobedience and possibly summer riots” coming with a wave of post-lockdown cases: 22/

“By September there's going to be social unrest just about everywhere that hasn't nailed down a massive social spending/social security project on a scale that makes the New Deal look restrained and conservative.” 23/

It is a dire possibility, and thankfully there are “wildcards,” as Stross calls them, that could prevent such a future. Yet if our past has taught us anything, it should be that our best strategy is to plan for the most dire possible outcomes: 24/

“Hoping for the best,” as Maya Angelou once wrote, “prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between. 25/

Make no mistake: the time to make those plans is now. Seeds must be planted. Foundations must be laid. While we have space and time, we must make our future something worth fighting for. We must play the long game. 26/

How will we lift ourselves from the rubble? What social programs will give us the best first step? Universal healthcare? Green New Deals? Regularizing work from home? What are we willing to give up to get what we want? 27/

We can use our cellphones to cut bureaucratic bloat, as some countries are doing, but will we sacrifice privacies to achieve it? If industries are broken by toppled multi-nationals, do we build them on more robust local scales, even if that means an increase in prices? 28/

Must we radically redistribute wealth to create a resurgent Middle Class from what is left, sacrificing the very gods of gold themselves? 29/

Despite our baser impulses, there are no easy answers to such questions. Tribalism will not serve us. Not with so much at stake. Pithy slogans and sound bites will no more save us than prayers to bloodied flags or broken stones. 30/

This is exactly why now is the time to begin the conversations in earnest, to produce the society-shaping visions that will give us the hope, determination, and preparation we need not just to survive but to thrive in whatever is to come. 31/

With luck, it might be enough. 32/END