Interesting article by @ashraf179. I subscribe to most of it except for the last 4 & crucial lines. Agility of enterprises to transform production lines is key. But are import restrictions (*smart* or *dumb*) the way to promote that agility? I think not. Here's why (1/n) https://twitter.com/ashraf179/status/1256533068795371521

(2/n) If #Pakistani firms are to seize part of the growing market of #PPE - where their comparative advantage lies - import restrictions will increase their rents at home and will incentivize them NOT to export. Import tariffs are implicitly an #export #tax.

(3/n) Rather than *smart* import restrictions, think about *smart* industrial policy. Identify what the binding constraint for these firms re-purposing production is. Three hypothesis: compliance w/standards; information about markets; risk-sharing/access to capital markets.

(4/n) Standards. Crucial for #PPE (& other goods w/ growing demand in #Covid_19 era). Yet, it's difficult to comply w standards - see what happened w/ #Turkish PPE sent to the #UK. Guide firms through process of standards compliance & certification https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/all-400000-gowns-flown-from-turkey-for-nhs-fail-uk-standards

(5/n) Information/Intelligence. #Covid_19 broke exporter-importer relationships. Building new ones takes promotion. No more trade fairs for the time being calls for *smart* export promotion (not *smart* import restrictions). Leverage IT to promote #Pakistani goods & services.

(6/n) Re-purposing takes investment. Investing w/high uncertainty takes some arrangement to share risks (and expected profits). Matching grants for viable business models to re-purpose production, to enhance digital presence. Not *smart* import restrictions.

(7/n) Last thing: Agree w/ @ashraf179 - 1st mover advantage matters. But you won't get it if you think #exports as a residual activity (concept of *export surplus* is dodgy). Put #exports at the center, in areas that do not compromise national security (most). #PakThink