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A wave of just-the-flu-bros has crested over society, arguing the virus is “mild”.
Next is the wave of its-not-the-flu-bro!, from folks who got one of these “mild” cases.
They’ll tell friends, who will voluntarily self-isolate. So the 2nd wave of lockdown will be decentralized. https://twitter.com/elissabeth/status/1259301645776805890">https://twitter.com/elissabet...
Next is the wave of its-not-the-flu-bro!, from folks who got one of these “mild” cases.
They’ll tell friends, who will voluntarily self-isolate. So the 2nd wave of lockdown will be decentralized. https://twitter.com/elissabeth/status/1259301645776805890">https://twitter.com/elissabet...
What people don’t get is: supply is inelastic but demand is highly elastic.
Yes, your job is important to you. But that cup of coffee really isn’t.
So as people self-isolate, DEMAND crashes. Workers go back-to-work but consumers withdraw from the market for all but necessities.
Yes, your job is important to you. But that cup of coffee really isn’t.
So as people self-isolate, DEMAND crashes. Workers go back-to-work but consumers withdraw from the market for all but necessities.
This is pandemic deflation: everything people don’t want crashes in price, because demand organically evaporates, putting people in travel/bars/etc out of work.
Then there is pandemic inflation: surging prices for masks, Purell, things people need. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232074597681463296?s=20">https://twitter.com/balajis/s... https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232074597681463296">https://twitter.com/balajis/s...
Then there is pandemic inflation: surging prices for masks, Purell, things people need. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232074597681463296?s=20">https://twitter.com/balajis/s... https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232074597681463296">https://twitter.com/balajis/s...
Just-the-flu types think their argument is with mortality stats, but it is really with individual stories.
Many have mind warped themselves into an alternative reality, but hearing from friends & family will bring them back to earth. Then behavior shifts.
https://twitter.com/LaurenBerson/status/1251886928024293376?s=20">https://twitter.com/LaurenBer... https://twitter.com/laurenberson/status/1251886928024293376">https://twitter.com/laurenber...
Many have mind warped themselves into an alternative reality, but hearing from friends & family will bring them back to earth. Then behavior shifts.
https://twitter.com/LaurenBerson/status/1251886928024293376?s=20">https://twitter.com/LaurenBer... https://twitter.com/laurenberson/status/1251886928024293376">https://twitter.com/laurenber...
The counterargument will be that these are anecdotes. But:
1) Anecdotes begin process of data collection. We need graphs of self-reported severity for “mild” cases.
2) If 10 fall seriously ill in your social network of 1000, what’s the chance of that? https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1253083572832841728?s=20">https://twitter.com/balajis/s... https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1253083572832841728">https://twitter.com/balajis/s...
1) Anecdotes begin process of data collection. We need graphs of self-reported severity for “mild” cases.
2) If 10 fall seriously ill in your social network of 1000, what’s the chance of that? https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1253083572832841728?s=20">https://twitter.com/balajis/s... https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1253083572832841728">https://twitter.com/balajis/s...
Remember, it’s a contagious disease, so those 10 in your social network of 1000 with “mild” symptoms will increase in absence of virus control.
We have 1M+ cases in the US. As people recover and get well enough to write, they’ll warn others not to get it. https://twitter.com/katgleason/status/1245696340803366913?s=20">https://twitter.com/katgleaso... https://twitter.com/katgleason/status/1245696340803366913">https://twitter.com/katgleaso...
We have 1M+ cases in the US. As people recover and get well enough to write, they’ll warn others not to get it. https://twitter.com/katgleason/status/1245696340803366913?s=20">https://twitter.com/katgleaso... https://twitter.com/katgleason/status/1245696340803366913">https://twitter.com/katgleaso...
It’s still early in the pandemic and I’ve seen @katgleason @LaurenBerson @ElissaBeth get seriously ill.
These are organized, accomplished young women. Powerhouses. Probably take better care of their health than most.
They should write opeds. You don’t want to get what they got.
These are organized, accomplished young women. Powerhouses. Probably take better care of their health than most.
They should write opeds. You don’t want to get what they got.
Please note: this is NOT an argument for infinite lockdown, but a request to take the virus seriously so that we can first contain it (as other countries have done) and then build the technology required to solve it (tests, drugs, vaccines, etc). https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1257159480816488448?s=20">https://twitter.com/balajis/s... https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1257159480816488448">https://twitter.com/balajis/s...
It sounds so dumb that “taking the virus seriously” would be important
But it means a reallocation of individual, corporate, societal resources to controlling the viral fire & then putting it out.
Rather than ignoring it or casuistically talking it down.
https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1259189634187382785?s=21">https://twitter.com/macaesbru... https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1259189634187382785">https://twitter.com/macaesbru...
But it means a reallocation of individual, corporate, societal resources to controlling the viral fire & then putting it out.
Rather than ignoring it or casuistically talking it down.
https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1259189634187382785?s=21">https://twitter.com/macaesbru... https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1259189634187382785">https://twitter.com/macaesbru...
