The testing situation in U.S. has improved, but because we dithered for so long, it’s still nowhere near as good as it is in countries like Germany.

Let’s take a walk back in time ... quick thread. 1/9

On 4/9 ( https://web.archive.org/web/20200409022254/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/):

Per 1 million:

: 6,675 tests, 1,314 cases, 45 deaths
: 15,730 tests, 1,352 cases, 30 deaths 2/

On 5/9 ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries):

Per 1 million:

: 26,943 tests, 4,070 cases, 242 deaths
: 32,891 tests, 2,045 cases, 90 deaths 3/

Great news, right? Within 25% of Germany’s testing numbers. Yay! @paulmromer can declare victory!

Wrong! Germany is conducting 16.5 tests per positive case, enough to contain the spread, while the US is testing 6.75, barely enough to meet acute demand. 4/

Yes, it’s true that over the past month the US has actually conducted slightly more tests per capita than Germany.

But that’s still not enough, because our outbreak is far bigger than Germany’s. 5/

In the last month, per million:

: +20,268 tests, +2,756 cases, +197 deaths.
: +17,161 tests, +693 cases, +60 deaths.

Although we managed 1.2x as many tests per capita as Germany, we also had 4x as many cases and 3.3x as many deaths. That’s a failure. 6/

During this time, Germany conducted 25 tests per positive case, much better than the 16.5 it was doing on 4/9. 7/

Meanwhile, the US conducted 7 per positive case, marginaly better than the 5 we were doing on 4/9, but still barely enough to meet acute demand and nowhere near enough for containment. 8/

So while it’s true that the U.S. has improved the testing situation, it’s still woefully inadequate throughout the US — except perhaps in the WH, where Trump would certainly have gotten infected without ubiquitous testing. 9/9