1) Here& #39;s why I think the S&P 500 will revisit the March low. (Note: this prediction is worth exactly what I& #39;m charging for it!)

The 2020 S&P GAAP estimate is currently around $100. For 2021 it& #39;s around $150. I think the latter number is ridiculous. Here& #39;s why...

2) 2019 U.S. GDP was $21.2 trillion. If it& #39;s 15% lower this year it regresses to the level of 2014/2015, when earnings were around $95, so there& #39;s my guess for 2020.

If 2021 GDP is 8% lower than 2019 (my social-distancing WAG) we& #39;re at 2017 levels, where earnings were $110.

3) Of course, if a Democrat wins the White House the corporate tax rate will inevitably be higher, but let& #39;s put that aside and use $110 for 2021 GAAP S&P earnings.

Now of course there& #39;s the question of what multiple to put on those weakly growing earnings.

4) The S&P PE in 2010 (a year after the 2009 ugliness) was 20x, then dropped to 16x in 2011 and 15x in 2012. If we generously use 20x $110 for 2021 that& #39;s 2200, which coincidentally was almost exactly the March low (2192). So I think we& #39;ll retest that low later this year or 2021.

5) As @Tryggvas points out, the lower corporate tax rates didn& #39;t go into effect until 2018, so under this analysis (whereby I assume 2021 GDP = 2017& #39;s) the S&P would earn $120 in 2021 (not $110) and my target thus becomes 2400 not 2200; 2400 is down 18% from last Friday& #39;s close.