Updated graphs for 5/9.
First up is comparison of descent trajectories between different countries that have passed their peaks. The start point for each is the top of the curve. US with by far the slowest descent. It's been 18 days since our peak, and we are now at 88% of peak.

Here's the same thing zoomed in to the top of the curve. Spain and France are just starting to loosen restrictions a month after their peaks. Their daily number of deaths is now less than 25% of peak. None of them are anywhere close to herd immunity.

How is the latest IHME projection doing? Pretty well actually. It's been five days since that model revision was released and we are following its trajectory almost exactly. Previous versions used optimistic assumptions and it was obvious within days that we weren't on that path.

Other countries are a useful reality check. So far we are on a slower descent than any of them. The IHME model projects 134,000 deaths by August. A faster descent like Italy or Spain could drop that a bit, if we don't get a rise from dropping our guard too early.

Daily new cases for different states, focusing on states that are still rising:
• Most states have leveled off.
• IL, PA, VA, IA are states to pay attention to now.
• It'll still be a week or so before seeing any effects of loosened restrictions
• Data from @COVID19Tracking

Daily deaths for different states, focusing on states that are increasing:
• US at around 1,800 deaths/day and not dropping much.
• Lots of other states rising and offsetting most of the gains from NY and NJ.

Positive test rate for different states:
• NJ finally starting to come down, but still testing mostly sick people.
• UT at the other end of the spectrum testing widely, looking for new outbreaks.
• US at 15% still too high for comfort but improving.

Case fatality rate for different states:
• For comparison, Italy is at 13.9%. South Korea is at 2.4%
• MI & CT heading towards Italy-like numbers.
• US at 5.6%
• UT still incredibly good at about 1%.