Read on Twitter
This thread is very interesting, but it furthered my view that suppressing the epidemic with "test and trace" is a pipe dream. It would require a degree of competence on the part of the state and compliance on the part of the population that are not realistic in most countries. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1259178497320185856
It can probably be part of the toolbox we use to slow down the epidemic after we lift the stay-at-home orders, but we're not going to suppress it like that and we're also not going to stay locked down until a vaccine or a treatment is widely available, so let's not pretend.
I know a lot of people think it's feasible in theory and they may even be right, but we don't live in a theoretical world, we live in the real world, where there are social/political/legal constraints that aren't going away just because you wish they did.
To be clear, I'm not saying that if we let it rip, everything will quickly go back to normal. I know this isn't true, but since I'm increasingly convinced we no longer have a choice, I prefer that to vastly increasing the power of the state for something that isn't going to work.
The problem is that, no matter how fancy the technological solutions you come up with are, they won't allow you to suppress the epidemic unless everyone uses them and complies. In China, this may be possible, but that's only because it's a police state.
People often cite South Korea as a counter-example, but I don't think what they're doing would fly in most Western countries and, since they started doing this early, it's actually much easier for them than it would be for us even if that weren't true. https://twitter.com/fredbauerblog/status/1258038064921956352
Again, I don't say that people I like the herd immunity strategy or because I don't think it's going to suck massively, I say that because I'm increasingly convinced we don't really have a choice and I don't want to vastly increase state power in the false hope it will save us.
I want to insist on the point about competence again. So far most Western governments have been spectacularly incompetent in dealing with this crisis. I'm not willing to vastly increase their power in the hope they're going to get better. People should think about that more.
