1) In what could only be described as a late-afternoon “data dump"on Friday, the government released its latest projections for #COVID19 until August. To put it mildly, they conflict with Premier @francoislegault's plans. In this thread, I will try to explain those projections.

2) As we know, epidemiological projections are by their very nature imperfect. They are also intended to be proved wrong, since if society takes measures to avoid the worse-case scenario, the projections will turn out to be incorrect. They are nonetheless very helpful.

3) I will not criticize the methodology behind these #COVID projections. I will leave that to others. I will simply report some of them, arguing how they are meant to raise questions about the government’s plans to reopen some Montreal stores and schools on May 25.

4) The projections warn that about two weeks after the planned reopening, the number of new #COVID cases will jump to 10,000 a day in early June in the greater Montreal region. That projection is more than 10 times greater than the current number of daily cases.

5) The projections warn that in the middle of summer — when most nurses go on vacation — the number of #COVID hospitalizations in the Montreal area would soar to 500 a day just before July. In contrast, the cumulative number of all hospitalizations in Quebec was 1,835 on Friday.

6) It’s the projected #COVID death toll that is perhaps the most chilling. Should Legault proceed with his plan for the Montreal area, it would result in 150 deaths a day in July. That’s two to four times greater than the daily increase thus far.

7) Usually the government holds a technical briefing to explain its projections. This wasn't done Friday. The Premier didn't address the media Friday. Quebec’s chief health officer, Dr. @ArrudaHoracio, was in Montreal and didn't discuss the projections. Why was it done this way?

8) Nonetheless, it appears the independent experts intended to send a clear message to the public that was aimed at raising serious questions about the Premier’s decision to stick with his arbitrary dates to soon reopen parts of the epicenter of Canada’s #COVID pandemic.

9) Meanwhile, the number of #COVID cases climbed to nearly 19,000 on Saturday on Montreal Island. This occurred as the province carried out 10,618 screening tests across the province in the first clear sign the testing blitz has ramped up in earnest.

10) What’s more, the death toll from #COVID climbed to 1,760 in Montreal, with the daily increase (33) the lowest it’s been in 19 days. But again, we must be careful to draw conclusions based on a difference of one day.

11) We can infer from the fact that the number outbreaks increased in long-term care centres and seniors’ residences in Montreal to 138 on Saturday from 130 last week that sadly, we can expect more #COVID deaths.

12) It’s now become clear that there’s not only a dispute brewing between Ottawa and Quebec over Legault’s plans, but even within the province — between the government’s own experts and the Premier’s office. End of thread. Please stay safe and be kind to one another.