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al Qaeda and ISIS are feudin’ again, this time in Western Africa. https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/analysis-islamic-state-claims-al-qaeda-started-a-war-in-west-africa.php
I’m sure some people will say, “Great, let them kill each other.”
But a lot of research suggests that there are a number of BAD consequences of militant group rivalry (thread...) 1/
I’m sure some people will say, “Great, let them kill each other.”
But a lot of research suggests that there are a number of BAD consequences of militant group rivalry (thread...) 1/
I wrote about the AQ-ISIS rivalry in @PVGlance 5 years ago (wow, time flies), drawing on some research at that time.
http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2015/05/18/when-militant-groups-attack-each-other/
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http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2015/05/18/when-militant-groups-attack-each-other/
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My "enemies with benefits" paper found that militant group rivalries can help the involved groups – it can inspire innovation, help with recruiting, spoil peace talks. Quant work and illustrative case studies showed how. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343314550538
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Anyway, a lot of great research on has come out since then. So here are a few new things, and a few older ones too. 4/
First, what causes militant group rivalry?
@Fjelde and @Dessnilsson look at rebel rivalry, finding it's associated with rebel power imbalances, drug cultivation, and other factors https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002712439496
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@Fjelde and @Dessnilsson look at rebel rivalry, finding it's associated with rebel power imbalances, drug cultivation, and other factors https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002712439496
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@CostantinoPisch finds that rivalry emerges as a response to opportunity and vulnerability https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec_a_00322
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Hafez explores how ideological distance can explain inter-group rivalry in the Algerian civil war. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2017.1389726 @ekgade, Hafez, and Gabbay find that ideological distance is important for explaining rivalry in Syria https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022343318806940 7/
An article by @BarakMendelsohn examines the Algerian civil war and identifies several sources behind non-state actor fratricide there https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1580419 8/
A paper of mine looking at hundreds of militant groups finds, for example, that ethnonationalist groups are especially likely to have rivals. (Religious groups are more likely to have alliances. The ISIS-AQ rivalry is unusual.) https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2018.1431365 9/
But what are the EFFECTS of rivalry? Generally it can lead to more and more extreme violence, some work finds. Like @MiaMBloom's groundbreaking research on outbidding and suicide terror.
So we maybe shouldn't encourage inter-group competition.
http://cup.columbia.edu/book/dying-to-kill/9780231133203 10/
So we maybe shouldn't encourage inter-group competition.
http://cup.columbia.edu/book/dying-to-kill/9780231133203 10/
An article by @_justinconrad and @KevTGreene also finds militant group competition associated with more severe or shocking terrorism. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/680262?mobileUi=0&journalCode=jop
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“Intraspecies” competition among militant groups is also associated with more terrorism, according to work by @iamnemeth https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022002712468717 12/
Some work fails to find a relationship between militant group competition and more violence, such as this @mgfindley and @JosephKYoung article.
More research is needed.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2011.639415
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More research is needed.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2011.639415
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Beyond outbidding, a great book by @laiabalcells looks at how pre-war relationships affect rival armed groups’ violence toward civilians. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316392737 14/
It should be noted that inter-group rivalry is not only pure “bad news” for governments and civilians. @pstanpolitics, @Wendy_Pearlman, and @kgcunnin find that rebel fratricide leads to defections from rebel groups. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022002711429681 /15
FINALLY, does rivalry lead to group fragmentation? Or the reverse? I don’t know if that’s been looked at yet.
There’s the great and growing line of work on fragmentation, and someone could bring these lines of work together. (Or let us know if it’s been done already?) /16
There’s the great and growing line of work on fragmentation, and someone could bring these lines of work together. (Or let us know if it’s been done already?) /16
What other research on militant group rivalry did I neglect to mention? (sorry!) I’m happy to RT more. /17
Anyway, inter-group rivalry isn’t necessarily good news; don’t celebrate the AQ-ISIS rivalry. And keep an eye on the growing research on this topic. 18/18 I think
of course my list of articles was not exhaustive.
more solid research showing that militant group competition leads to violence against civilians: Wood and Kathman https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1065912914563546 19/
more solid research showing that militant group competition leads to violence against civilians: Wood and Kathman https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1065912914563546 19/
most research on militant group rivalry looks at domestic competition, this article by Farrell finds that transnational group competition is also associated with more attacks and more severe attacks https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022343319880939
(thanks @JosephKYoung) 20/
(thanks @JosephKYoung) 20/
Inter-group competition also leads to tactical diversity, an important outcome. Article by @mchorowitz @EPerkoski @pbkpotter https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/tactical-diversity-in-militant-violence/A0368B8B17600FA07FB7DB3EA1C67185
(thanks @CanbolatSercan)
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(thanks @CanbolatSercan)
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