1/n A new Covid-19 thread, based on data from Raj Chetty's OI Team. This is via @ProfWeinstein, Ohio's Covid and regional economic guru.

Big consumer spending drop in Indiana, especially in the more populous portions since Covid -19 appeared.

2/n This daily consumer spending data shows that Indiana began to reduce consumer spending BEFORE the stay at home order was introduced. In fact, consumer spending dipped by 37% by that date, or roughly 75% of the full drop.

3/n Indiana appears to be at a position with consumer spending down about 1/3 for 7-10 days. How sub-sectors perform paints a more granular picture. Restaurant sales are actually higher than the day before shutdown. This is surely a steady adjustment to carry-out sales.

4/n But, it also implies that a reopening order won't cause a big improvement in restaurant sales. This graph depicts arts, entertainment and recreation. Nearly all the decline before the stay at home order.

Re-opening is likely to have only a modest effect on spending.

5/n Apparel and general merchandise is now selling better than at the stay at home order date. It was the risk of Covid-19, not gov't orders that shut down the Indiana economy.

6/n Transportation (bus and air, mostly) also operating at -80%, with nearly ALL the decline preceding any government action in Indiana.

7/n And, as every must suspect, look what happened to grocery stores. Almost a 50% spike over a week-long period (I attribute the lower than national spike to the ubiquity of Ball Jars filled with goodies in every Hoosier home).

8/n This last graphic is the single most visually stunning support for market-based economies we will ever see in the USA. Faced with a 50% increase in demand, the American food supply market thrived. Note: it is a food market, not a system, a system would've collapsed.

9/n These data are critical, because they make absolutely clear that free, educated citizens, not gov't closed the economy, at least here in Indiana. These data argue against a rush to re-opening the economy. A premature re-opening won't save the economy.

10/n And finally, you can read all this right here:

Kudos to Raj Chetty, @John_N_Friedman @nhendren82 @michaelstepner the @BillGates for funding this extraordinarily timely and important work.

H/T @ProfWeinstein my counterpart in Ohio (follow her)

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