We face a social threat as well as a medical one.

In times of economic hardship, people turn to political extremes (and we're not exactly in a place of national consensus right now anyway).

A deep, deep recession is ahead as the ground falls away ahead of our feet. (Thread)

Governments around the world are acquiring new, emergency powers to address the pandemic. Sadly, governments rarely give up all these powers when the emergency ends, without a change in government.

People accept and welcome the powers at the moment because it helps fight covid.

But the powers will include significant surveillance, suspension of some human rights, control over travel within/between countries, possibly control of private assets (eg if food production/supply becomes difficult after No Deal Brexit, or perhaps limits on moving money abroad).

We've also had elections suspended this month, which is probably fair enough given that the pandemic was raging unchecked... except that South Korea managed to hold in-person elections in April safely - another "premature" international comparison? We will see in 2021, I suppose.

To sustain control and compliance, the government will have little choice but to minimise the reaction to the deaths (the numbing is already well underway), and dismiss international comparisons (we compare favourably to only a few other countries right now, and badly to MANY).

Other major issues that continue to demand scrutiny have been largely forgotten. Arcuri affair? Russian Report? The EU trade deal we're supposed to be negotiating? This issues haven't gone away, and the culture of impunity continues. Parliament is a hollowed-out shell at present.

Under the cover of emergency, No Deal Brexit is going to happen this winter. That will worsen the already-bleak economic outlook over the next 2-5 years and beyond.

That will harshen the political landscape still further and people will blamecast. We all know who will be blamed.

Foreigners, the poor, ethnic minorities, LGBT+ people, Jews, people with disabilities... the list of people who usually get blamed for things is one we all know well. And avoiding responsibility seems to be a central feature of government now, so the blame must be redirected.

I think we're also likely to see a backlash against the NHS, though I can't predict yet what form it will take. There is no way the pendulum pushed out by seven weeks of clapping won't swing back with full momentum, pushed harder by the government as criticism mounts.

Added to all this is the sometimes deranged focus of the headlines in the media, which have not exactly covered themselves in glory, on the whole. Can we expect more scrutiny, or less, as things get worse socioeconomically in the next few months? Have a guess.

Social media is already awash with misinformation, some deliberately planted to cause strife, and the rest just unexamined, prejudice-reinforcing nonsense. Social media companies have made very little effort to stop this, leaving people to work out for themselves what's true.

This has led to protests against very rational and necessary lockdown measures, as well as attacks on 5G phone masts as conspiracy theories take hold in some people's minds.

Meanwhile to shore up the economy, people will be made to go back to work. Furlough support will be ended and it will be "work or starve on UC"... but guess who gets to work from the safety of home? Clue: not the poor; not service workers, not bus drivers or shop assistants.

Unemployment will rocket even if we do ease lockdown soon, because many jobs and businesses cannot be sustained in a pandemic. Poverty will follow; we already know we have a welfare system that is cruel, capricious and inadequate. Poverty can lead to resentment, anger and unrest.

At home, huge sums of money will be spent on "fighting the pandemic", and there will be little scrutiny of how well it is spent or who benefits from it.

Some measures will be appropriate Keynesian attempts to keep the economy going.

Some will be opportunist trough-snuffling.

International alliances will fray as allies turn inwards. People will seek domestic advantage by keeping borders closed.
We've already seen what happens when the EU tried to help us out with ventilators and other opportunities for cooperation.
Meanwhile other nations grandstand.

The constant references to war (both current "war on covid" metaphors, and harking back to WW2) are supposed to bring us all together. That sense of cohesion, united against a common viral enemy, will break down, though, as it becomes politically expedient to divide people.

So political extremism is likely to be strengthened by the crisis, as poverty rides up alongside Pestilence and "War". People will take advantage of fear and resentment to gain politically, often at the expense of marginalised groups. People will be pitted against one another.

Remember throughout this: by letting yourself be polarised politically into a tribe you're doing the work of those grasping for power at the expense of social harmony. Embrace the naïve lefty. Forgive the nasty Tory. Seek views beyond your particular Brexit bubble.

Reach across.

Above all, don't let the chancers and grifters take advantage of a good crisis to cement their control. This isn't a protest against the sadly necessary lockdown - far from it. But beware the entrenchment of power and inequality that will follow it.

Freedom requires vigilance.