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THREAD: There's much to like about the Government's expected push on walking and cycling to work in response to public transport capacity being much reduced by #covid19. But how realistic is it?
POINT 1: Nearly 2/3rds of commuters in England & Wales live within realistic walking or cycling distance to work.
9.3m - 43% of commuters - live within 5km of work (walking distance)
13.9m - 64% - live within 10 km (cycling distance).
That's a lot of people.
9.3m - 43% of commuters - live within 5km of work (walking distance) 13.9m - 64% - live within 10 km (cycling distance). That's a lot of people.
POINT 2: But switching to cycling or walking *outside* of cities won't make a lot of difference to congestion.
Outside of urban areas in England & Wales, 5% of commuters use public transport.
Post lockdown there'll be very little extra pressure on the network here.
Outside of urban areas in England & Wales, 5% of commuters use public transport. Post lockdown there'll be very little extra pressure on the network here.
POINT 3: And even in many cities not many people use public transport either.
In 27 cities, fewer than 1 in 10 use public transport.
In Telford it's 5%.
In London it's 45%
See here: https://www.centreforcities.org/data-tool/#graph=table&city=show-all&indicator=commuting-by-bus-train-or-metro\\\\single\\\\2011&tableOrder=tableOrder\\\\1,0
In 27 cities, fewer than 1 in 10 use public transport. In Telford it's 5%. In London it's 45% See here: https://www.centreforcities.org/data-tool/#graph=table&city=show-all&indicator=commuting-by-bus-train-or-metro\\\\single\\\\2011&tableOrder=tableOrder\\\\1,0
POINT 4: In those cities where more than 1 in 10 use public transport:
5.5 million live in walking distance
8.5 million in cycling distance.
This is the more realistic pool of people the Government is talking about.
5.5 million live in walking distance8.5 million in cycling distance. This is the more realistic pool of people the Government is talking about.
POINT 5: Of the 8.5m potential walkers or cyclists, 37% live in London, and 68% live in London or large cities.
So the Government's push is principally one aimed at London, and to a lesser extent large cities such as Manchester.
So the Government's push is principally one aimed at London, and to a lesser extent large cities such as Manchester.
POINT 6: Of course, this is a potential number. Some will walk or cycle already. And while some will switch to feet or 2 wheels, many will not.
So while I hope people will switch, for congestion & environmental reasons, realistically it's not going to be that many.
ENDS
So while I hope people will switch, for congestion & environmental reasons, realistically it's not going to be that many.
ENDS
@GraemePaton this may be of interest
