THREAD: There's much to like about the Government's expected push on walking and cycling to work in response to public transport capacity being much reduced by #covid19.

But how realistic is it?

POINT 1: Nearly 2/3rds of commuters in England & Wales live within realistic walking or cycling distance to work.

9.3m - 43% of commuters - live within 5km of work (walking distance)

13.9m - 64% - live within 10 km (cycling distance).
That's a lot of people.

POINT 2: But switching to cycling or walking *outside* of cities won't make a lot of difference to congestion.

Outside of urban areas in England & Wales, 5% of commuters use public transport.

Post lockdown there'll be very little extra pressure on the network here.

POINT 3: And even in many cities not many people use public transport either.

In 27 cities, fewer than 1 in 10 use public transport.

In Telford it's 5%.

In London it's 45%

See here: https://www.centreforcities.org/data-tool/#graph=table&city=show-all&indicator=commuting-by-bus-train-or-metro\\\\single\\\\2011&tableOrder=tableOrder\\\\1,0

POINT 4: In those cities where more than 1 in 10 use public transport:

5.5 million live in walking distance
8.5 million in cycling distance.

This is the more realistic pool of people the Government is talking about.

POINT 5: Of the 8.5m potential walkers or cyclists, 37% live in London, and 68% live in London or large cities.

So the Government's push is principally one aimed at London, and to a lesser extent large cities such as Manchester.

POINT 6: Of course, this is a potential number. Some will walk or cycle already. And while some will switch to feet or 2 wheels, many will not.

So while I hope people will switch, for congestion & environmental reasons, realistically it's not going to be that many.

ENDS

@GraemePaton this may be of interest