Read on Twitter
I’ll switch to English to get some international attention for the strange Corona situation The Netherlands is in.
The Netherlands are a sneaky little fella. And, admittedly, not he sharpest tool in the shed. We formally went all in on herd immunity after the UK dismissed it!
The Netherlands are a sneaky little fella. And, admittedly, not he sharpest tool in the shed. We formally went all in on herd immunity after the UK dismissed it!
The approach was met with criticism - about the herd immunity part. The PM’s response was stating that herd immunity was’t a main goal, without disavowing the mitigation strategy of “maximum control” - which has a suitably distinct Orwellian ring to it, doesn’t it?
The Dutch strategy since March 12th:
We can delay the spread of the virus and at the same time build up population immunity in a controlled manner” https://www.google.nl/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52135814
We can delay the spread of the virus and at the same time build up population immunity in a controlled manner” https://www.google.nl/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52135814
Here’s another relevant article - I’ll continue this thread later. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/coronavirus-north-netherlands-stopped-following-national-advice-here-s-what-happened-1.4242167
But on a personal note: I create digital campaigns for political parties and ngos. I was flabbergasted, truly *floored* by the PM’s speech on March 16th accepting the spread and embracing the already generally discarded notion of herd immunity;
However, I was equally perplexed by its near-unanimous positive reception, including by most of the opposition. How is allowing the spread of a deadly disease with an estimated death count of anywhere between 40k-200k not a horrible prospect, to be prevented at any cost?
Why has the mitigation strategy not been criticized by most opposition parties? It took six weeks of relentless grassroots campaigning to get the subject on the agenda, finally getting national attention for the option of ‘containment’ only just this week.
Meanwhile, the Dutch government has turned gaslighting into an art form. Without ever disavowing the mitigation approach, they keeo half-assedly working on things like mass testing that fail to materialize. They talk about containment, but are pushing for mitigation.
The Netherlands is a red line too https://twitter.com/binarybits/status/1258858128453623808?s=21 https://twitter.com/binarybits/status/1258858128453623808
On March 16, @minpres presented mitigation (flattening the curve, but allowing the spread to continue) as the best out of three, alternatives being ‘allowing the virus to run its course’ without any measures and a ‘total shutdown’ https://www.government.nl/documents/speeches/2020/03/16/television-address-by-prime-minister-mark-rutte-of-the-netherlands
Why was the containment approach with a short lockdown and test / trace / isolate never mentioned?
Our best guess: once they could not handle the first waves, the guidelines dictated a transition to mitigation. No ‘go back to the beginning’ as Merkel says:
Our best guess: once they could not handle the first waves, the guidelines dictated a transition to mitigation. No ‘go back to the beginning’ as Merkel says:
So, @minpress presented 3 options they thought were available in a situation where containment had already been dismissed as a viable course of action.
The key missing insight: a short lockdown could reset the clock, buy time, and give you a chance to try again.
The key missing insight: a short lockdown could reset the clock, buy time, and give you a chance to try again.
The Dutch have never really been aware – or willing to admit – they are only slowing the spread. If you point out they are admitting on TV that reopening schools happens with the intended effect of spreading infections, awareness grows https://twitter.com/jaapstronks/status/1253084594972364800?s=21 https://twitter.com/jaapstronks/status/1253084594972364800
To make it more complicated, there are clear signs containment was never even attempted seriously from late February onward. Testing & tracing capacity was nowhere near sufficient, most returning vacationers were never tested;
The RIVM denied existence of presymptomatic spread. Testing data from that period was withheld from public release; a critical newspaper article (which also interviewed me) was pulled from the @ADnl website quickly hour after publication, see https://www.geenstijl.nl/5152594/huh-kritisch-ad-artikel-over-rivm-foetsie/
It is unclear why containment - with a lockdown first to get the infections back to rates which are manageable for test / trace / isolate - was never on the table, or never allowed *back* on the table.
It’s so simple. We want to give ‘crush the curve’ a try.
It’s so simple. We want to give ‘crush the curve’ a try.
Another mystery is the lack of organized pushback from the scientific community, health organizations or NGOs. This has reduced proponents of the containment approach, including grassroots org @ContainmentNu, to the fringes of public debate
Because @ContainmentNu has never got any media attention. Even though we did get 15.000 people to sign our petitions and signups, including https://www.testentestentesten.nl
There was some press interest, but interviews failed to materialize. We do talk to journalists and columnist through private channels and have gotten attention for containment that way;
However, we’ve spent the entire month of April convincing people, journalists and opposition politicians that:
- the Netherlands was still only ‘mitigating’
- that this leads to 60-90% of people becoming infected
- that there is an alternative
- the Netherlands was still only ‘mitigating’
- that this leads to 60-90% of people becoming infected
- that there is an alternative
A correction: one could argue that the Netherlands is on an amber-colored trajectory, although it’s up for debate (amber vs red).
But the point is: why can’t we be green? https://twitter.com/jacvre/status/1259039786888826880?s=21
But the point is: why can’t we be green? https://twitter.com/jacvre/status/1259039786888826880?s=21
So yeah, I'm kinda envious of other countries where they are actually trying to contain the virus, and the main challenge is keeping course. For example, in Finland, scientists are urging to keep suppressing the virus: https://twitter.com/jaapstronks/status/1258689309395374080
As it stands, we are in the process of opening up the country with a R of just below 1. This Monday, primary schools will open.
Primary schools reopening alone could account for a 0.3 increase in R, pushing us right back into exponentional growth https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11532261/denmark-coronavirus-infection-rate-schools/
Primary schools reopening alone could account for a 0.3 increase in R, pushing us right back into exponentional growth https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11532261/denmark-coronavirus-infection-rate-schools/
Current situation:
- NL has only 4.4 contact tracers / 100k citizens.
- Incoming travellers are not quarantined
- Face masks are discouraged (but public transit orgs demand it)
- very little testing (large % results positive)
- large number of deaths per million people
- NL has only 4.4 contact tracers / 100k citizens.
- Incoming travellers are not quarantined
- Face masks are discouraged (but public transit orgs demand it)
- very little testing (large % results positive)
- large number of deaths per million people
What will happen next?
- As of Monday, R can be expected to be above 1
- Announced lifting of other measures will add to that effect
- Either mitigation will continue (never leaving 1st wave), or we will officially attempt (self-sabotaged) containment with test/tracing but fail
- As of Monday, R can be expected to be above 1
- Announced lifting of other measures will add to that effect
- Either mitigation will continue (never leaving 1st wave), or we will officially attempt (self-sabotaged) containment with test/tracing but fail
Although pointing out gaslighting and deception in policy and official communication has invited accusations of conspiracy thinking, there is growing consensus that something very wrong in the state of D̶e̶n̶m̶a̶r̶k̶ The Netherlands
About testing in The Netherlands https://twitter.com/JoannaTeglund/status/1259049374551814144
Currently, we are preparing a last-ditch campaign with a petition and campaign video and also two other approaches to get the Netherlands to change course.
Because there are always options. In a matter of weeks, we could be at the point where we would have the capacity to test/trace/isolate.
Regrettably, our government is acting in bad faith and seems determined to push for mitigation and keep containment off the table.
Regrettably, our government is acting in bad faith and seems determined to push for mitigation and keep containment off the table.
Note: it is not a conspiracy. Every large publication has journalists and columnists who know what is up, the daily Dutch news tv show Nieuwsuur does too. The signal is being boosted, and the government is running out of arguments.
A turning point was the Nieuwsuur tv show of last Monday (summary: https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2332795-is-onze-intelligente-lockdown-wel-zo-intelligent.html), where criticism of the Dutch strategy finally got prime time attention, see link. A Google Translated PDF of the summary of the broadcast can be viewed here:
https://files.bolster.digital/Is-our-intelligent-lockdown-really-that-intelligent_-_-News-hour-1589017240.pdf
https://files.bolster.digital/Is-our-intelligent-lockdown-really-that-intelligent_-_-News-hour-1589017240.pdf
"RIVM says that group immunity was not a goal, but a natural effect that will occur automatically in the future.
But several government advisers continue to refer to the strategy of circulating the virus."
But several government advisers continue to refer to the strategy of circulating the virus."
We were warned. @yaneerbaryam wrote to @RIVM_vDissel:
"We [...] we know that it is worth it to prevent many from dying. What are you waiting for?"
https://jopdevrieze.nl/straks-belanden-jullie-in-de-loser-group/
Translation: https://files.bolster.digital/-Soon-you-will-end-up-in-the-loser-group-Jop-de-Vrieze-1589017618.pdf
![We were warned. @yaneerbaryam wrote to @RIVM_vDissel:"We [...] we know that it is worth it to prevent many from dying. What are you waiting for?" https://jopdevrieze.nl/straks-belanden-jullie-in-de-loser-group/Translation: https://files.bolster.digital/-Soon-you-will-end-up-in-the-loser-group-Jop-de-Vrieze-1589017618.pdf](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXkRkTmXYAEWcF6.png "We were warned. @yaneerbaryam wrote to @RIVM_vDissel:\"We [...] we know that it is worth it to prevent many from dying. What are you waiting for?\" https://jopdevrieze.nl/straks-belanden-jullie-in-de-loser-group/Translation: https://files.bolster.digital/-Soon-you-will-end-up-in-the-loser-group-Jop-de-Vrieze-1589017618.pdf")
"We [...] we know that it is worth it to prevent many from dying. What are you waiting for?"
https://jopdevrieze.nl/straks-belanden-jullie-in-de-loser-group/
Translation: https://files.bolster.digital/-Soon-you-will-end-up-in-the-loser-group-Jop-de-Vrieze-1589017618.pdf
You should follow @yaneerbaryam, who provides a sobering explanation for this garbage fest of a pandemic response: https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1258475119640481793
Also, you should ALL head over to https://www.endcoronavirus.org and learn more about the best approach out of this mess once we will have found a way to get rid of all the fuckery.
Yesterday, @bosmana told @nieuwsuur that our testing & tracing capacity was insufficient.
translation: https://files.bolster.digital/Contact-research-protocol-has-two-major-weaknesses-News-hour-1589018518.pdf https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2333281-protocol-voor-contactonderzoek-kent-twee-grote-zwakke-plekken.html
translation: https://files.bolster.digital/Contact-research-protocol-has-two-major-weaknesses-News-hour-1589018518.pdf https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2333281-protocol-voor-contactonderzoek-kent-twee-grote-zwakke-plekken.html
The kicker is: in the end, even this criticism helps the government push for mitigation. Criticising the governments lackluster efforts at containment with testing & tracing still buys into the idea that there is an honest attempt at doing so
I am fully aware this sounds conspiratorial, but we simply cannot assume the government is a good faith actor. But this is to be expected, as mitigation is incompatible with transparency and acting in good faith. This is illuminating: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257930496790507521
A quick thought experiment is helpful. Mitigation is keeping R at a steady 1 with a steady infection rate at a point where you are just below max IC capacity. It ic incompatible with mass testing, because if people know they are positive, they will not want to infect others;
Also, face masks are discouraged because that is a measure which is difficult to reverse. Mitigation policy for a deadly disease means that individual interest and population interest do not align - transparent policiy communication is unhelpful and ineffective
This means that once a government has chosen mitigation as a policy, one can no longer assume they are acting in good faith. Remember, primary schools are opening up with the expected by-effect of children spreading the virus https://twitter.com/jaapstronks/status/1253084594972364800
How dangerous is the virus for children, and for parents? What about teachers?
It is hard to tell if the government assumes that the virus is unstoppable and wants it to spread *anyway*
It is hard to tell if the government assumes that the virus is unstoppable and wants it to spread *anyway*
So, this may be the gist of it. Protesting against the mitigation policy and demanding containment requires that one is willing to accept the belief that the government does not have your best interests at heart.
That, my friends, is truly a hard pill to swallow.
That, my friends, is truly a hard pill to swallow.
People have an innate feel of what the majority opinion is, and a sharp deviation leads to a decrease in one's social capital. I am convinced (as someone who studied Communication Science) there is a 'spiral of silence' effect at play.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiral_of_silence
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiral_of_silence
We are slowly gaining ground. Let me just state the obvious: the current Dutch #covid19 approach is a crime against humanity.
If you want to help, join 15,000 others on our list: https://www.containmentnu.nl/signups/signup
