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Last year I posted a very simple argument to #bioRxiv. It became the 6th-most discussed preprint ever.
Today I am posting the sequel.
#Supercentenarians and #BlueZones â are they a vital research population, or statistical junk?
Letâs find out!
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v2
Today I am posting the sequel.
#Supercentenarians and #BlueZones â are they a vital research population, or statistical junk?
Letâs find out!
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v2
Supercentenarians 
the first day of the month: they are born on the 1st 150% more often.
They also like to be born on multiples of 5: the 5th, 10th, etc. But not the 25th.
Why?
Because if you make up a birthday, these are the numbers you pick (Only, donât pick Christmas)
the first day of the month: they are born on the 1st 150% more often. They also like to be born on multiples of 5: the 5th, 10th, etc. But not the 25th.
Why?
Because if you make up a birthday, these are the numbers you pick (Only, donât pick Christmas)
Super-old people also donât like birth or death certificates.
Which is strange, considering death certificates are issued, you know, at death. Like, now. To 95-99% of people, regardless of their age at death.
Yet <15% of 105+ year olds have one.
Which is strange, considering death certificates are issued, you know, at death. Like, now. To 95-99% of people, regardless of their age at death.
Yet <15% of 105+ year olds have one.
Just seven of the 504 US 110 year-olds are listed with a death certificate.
yet
>95% of ânormalâ US people born at the same time, in the same place, got a death certificateâŠ
Itâs almost as if the dog ate their homework.
Weird, huh.
yet
>95% of ânormalâ US people born at the same time, in the same place, got a death certificateâŠ
Itâs almost as if the dog ate their homework.
Weird, huh.
This even happens in major clinical studies.
In the New England Centenarian Study, 70% of their sample don't have birth certificates.
Instead, they used school report cards & family bibles as validated âevidenceâ of age. At best, they used census data with ~20% error rates.
In the New England Centenarian Study, 70% of their sample don't have birth certificates.
Instead, they used school report cards & family bibles as validated âevidenceâ of age. At best, they used census data with ~20% error rates.
Oh yeah, where do they come from, these super-duper-old people?
Surely #BlueZones, those secret corners of the world where people live forever and life is wonderful?
Right?
Surely #BlueZones, those secret corners of the world where people live forever and life is wonderful?
Right?
Of 175 UK regions tested, the new #BlueZone of Tower Hamlets has by far the highest concentration of 105+ year olds.
Where is T-Hams?
According to the UK Gov, the *single worst place* to be an old person, with most income-deprived old people & fewest 90+ year olds in the UK
Where is T-Hams?
According to the UK Gov, the *single worst place* to be an old person, with most income-deprived old people & fewest 90+ year olds in the UK
Any other UK #BlueZones?
Well, the #DominosPizza delivery zone in Stepney reaches 11% of the UKâs oldest peopleâs birthplace.
Where else?
#Tyneside, #Manchester and #Liverpool, innit.
Well, the #DominosPizza delivery zone in Stepney reaches 11% of the UKâs oldest peopleâs birthplace.
Where else?
#Tyneside, #Manchester and #Liverpool, innit.
I located over 80% of the world's 110-year-olds.
They live in regions that have:
Higher poverty
Shorter lifespans
Worse Health
More old-age poverty
Higher unemployment
The least 90+ year old people
They live in regions that have:
Higher poverty
Shorter lifespans
Worse Health
More old-age poverty
Higher unemployment
The least 90+ year old people
What does this mean for #BlueZones?
Letâs check the most famous #BlueZone, #Okinawa, and find out.
For decades, we have been regaled with tales of incredible Okinawa: pinnacle of healthiness!
Longevity âsecretsâ include eating sweet potato, oily fish, and being happy.
But...
Letâs check the most famous #BlueZone, #Okinawa, and find out.
For decades, we have been regaled with tales of incredible Okinawa: pinnacle of healthiness!
Longevity âsecretsâ include eating sweet potato, oily fish, and being happy.
But...
Not according to the government of Japan.
In national surveys Okinawans eat the least sweet potato, oily fish & seafood, fruit or vegetables of all 47 prefectures.
What do they eat most?
Spam. On average, 12 cans a year per person. Since the 50âs.
That's right, #Spam.
In national surveys Okinawans eat the least sweet potato, oily fish & seafood, fruit or vegetables of all 47 prefectures.
What do they eat most?
Spam. On average, 12 cans a year per person. Since the 50âs.
That's right, #Spam.
Okinawans have 2x the poverty rate of any other prefecture.
They have the worst #BMI, eat the most #KFC, and (in the 53rd-most happy country) retirees are not happier than average.
And?
The US Army issued their birth certificates. After bombing their birth registries.
They have the worst #BMI, eat the most #KFC, and (in the 53rd-most happy country) retirees are not happier than average.
And?
The US Army issued their birth certificates. After bombing their birth registries.
Okinawan 100-year-olds are far more common in towns whose birth registries were bombed.
They also live in a country who discovered they were âmissingâ 238,000 centenarians in 2010.
People were âsurvivingâ through incorrect paperwork.
The secret to old age.
Other #BlueZones?
They also live in a country who discovered they were âmissingâ 238,000 centenarians in 2010.
People were âsurvivingâ through incorrect paperwork.
The secret to old age.
Other #BlueZones?
In 2012 Greece discovered they had âmisplacedâ 82% of their centenarians.
They had been dead and collecting pensions at the same time.
They had been dead and collecting pensions at the same time.
Italy, too, has found 30,000 dead people collecting pensions.
Irma Borgoglio was still pulling this trick in 2016: diligently collecting her cheques from inside a freezer at the well-preserved age of 102.
Irma Borgoglio was still pulling this trick in 2016: diligently collecting her cheques from inside a freezer at the well-preserved age of 102.
In every country, areas with the most #supercentenarians (overall and per capita) are poor & short-lived, and have terrible health indicators & beleaguered economies.
Why?
Because thatâs where there is the most pressure to commit pension fraud.
Why?
Because thatâs where there is the most pressure to commit pension fraud.
This is the potential answer to âwhat causes remarkable longevityâ.
Thousands of recent cases, with valid paper-trails, show just how difficult it is for police, insurance agents and government demographers to detect such fraud.
Why are academic demographers different?
Thousands of recent cases, with valid paper-trails, show just how difficult it is for police, insurance agents and government demographers to detect such fraud.
Why are academic demographers different?
Bluntly, they are not.
They have volunteer contributors, few resources, and no police force to help out.
Unlike governments, academics are usually only rewarded for positive findings.
(Imagine trying to publish a demography paper about how your nanna *is not* aged 108.)
They have volunteer contributors, few resources, and no police force to help out.
Unlike governments, academics are usually only rewarded for positive findings.
(Imagine trying to publish a demography paper about how your nanna *is not* aged 108.)
Demographers have said massive, high-frequency error is impossible.
Itâs not.
In countries with #BlueZones and #Supercentenarians, gov.s have overlooked staggering rates of pension fraud.
Thatâs why, in 2012, 7,500+ Greek centenarians were collecting their pensions while dead.
Itâs not.
In countries with #BlueZones and #Supercentenarians, gov.s have overlooked staggering rates of pension fraud.
Thatâs why, in 2012, 7,500+ Greek centenarians were collecting their pensions while dead.
There's more. But what could this all mean?
That indicators of pension fraud and poor governance predict who reaches age 110.
That huge swathes of dietary and lifestyle advice isn't meaningful.
That 30+ yearsâ worth of health, genetic, & epidemiology research is now in doubt.
That indicators of pension fraud and poor governance predict who reaches age 110.
That huge swathes of dietary and lifestyle advice isn't meaningful.
That 30+ yearsâ worth of health, genetic, & epidemiology research is now in doubt.
This paper has been repeatedly blocked at peer review, over simple-to-fix problems, multiple times.
I have been called a fraud, been threatened with litigation for analysis of open public data, and received masses of hate mail *from my academic reviewers*
I have been called a fraud, been threatened with litigation for analysis of open public data, and received masses of hate mail *from my academic reviewers*
I was accused of not thinking of analyses that were in the abstract.
They emailed my boss to get me fired & made fraud accusations for months.
I was lumped in with a group I'd never heard of, who were then accused in @WaPo of being a Russian spy cell. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/
They emailed my boss to get me fired & made fraud accusations for months.
I was lumped in with a group I'd never heard of, who were then accused in @WaPo of being a Russian spy cell. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/
After abt six months of abuse, my reviewer/accusers admitted (accidentally) they never opened the R code and read the methods because they couldnât find the app.
It was a plain text file, with a â.râ file extension.
They then asked for the code âin an EXCEL fileâ
It was a plain text file, with a â.râ file extension.
They then asked for the code âin an EXCEL fileâ
Fortunately, #bioRxiv allows the free exchange of ideas.
With luck, and a brave editor, eventually this paper will be allowed into the scientific literature for a proper and reasoned debate.
#Demography #BlueZones #Supercentenarians
With luck, and a brave editor, eventually this paper will be allowed into the scientific literature for a proper and reasoned debate.
#Demography #BlueZones #Supercentenarians
@ a bunch of (possibly) interested parties-
@Demography_ANU @heidiledford @andrewvandam @thepointsguy @TheWislon @dshultz14 @callingbullshit @CT_Bergstrom @LiveScience @nntaleb
@Demography_ANU @heidiledford @andrewvandam @thepointsguy @TheWislon @dshultz14 @callingbullshit @CT_Bergstrom @LiveScience @nntaleb
