Thread: Pitt WR Development

I've consistently heard over the years that Pitt is good at drafting/developing WRs. People use it as an argument when taking a Pitt WR in rookie drafts. I've already heard it 2x this year w/ Claypool. I wanted to find out if this was a myth or fact.

Since Mike Tomlin became the Steelers HC (07), they have drafted 15 WRs.

Dallas Baker
Limas Sweed
Mike Wallace
Manny Sanders
AB
Toney Clemons
Markus Wheaton
Justin Brown
Dri Archer
Martavisu Bryant
Sammie Coates
Demarcus Ayers
JuJu
James Washington
Diontae Johnson

Of those 15 WRs listed above, only 3 of them have produced at least a WR2 season (Wallace, AB, and JuJu). Each one has posted a WR1 season as well with Wallace doing so twice, AB doing so 6x (all in Top 5), and Juju once in 2018.

The 20% success rate for the Steelers.

I've only counted the seasons where the WR finished as a Top 24 WR with the Steelers so guys like Manny Sanders actually exploded after he left the Steelers so he won't count as a hit for them since he hit for another team instead. Wallace also had Top 24 seasons with MIA and BAL

You can argue that most of them don't have prime draft capital (Round 1-3). So if we focus on guys drafted in those ranges (8) the success rate goes up to 25%. Still doesn't seem very impressive.

Then I compared this with some other teams who have had similar GM/HC longevity.

The following teams have had the same GM drafting and leading development for the same time period as Colbert/Tomlin.

Saints - Loomis
Cowboys - Jones
Ravens - Newsome
Falcons - Dimitroff
Eagles - Roseman
Seahawks - Schneider
Patriots - Belichick
Bengals - Brown

Saints have drafted 7 WRs since 2007 and 2 of them had at least WR2 numbers in a season (Cooks, MT) while Meachem was WR25 in '09.

Success rate: 28%. That goes up if we focus on just high draft capital it goes up to 50%.

This makes the Trequan miss hurt a little more.

Dallas has drafted 9 WRs since 2007 and 2 of them have produced at least WR2 numbers (Dez, Gallup) while UDFA like MAustin have also put up at least WR2 numbers.

Success rate: 22%. When we adjust for draft capital it goes up to 66.6%.

Ravens have drafted 15 WRs since 2007 and only 1 has produced a WR2 season or better (Torrey Smith).

Success Rate: 6.6%. Adjusting for draft capital it becomes 20%.

So the Steelers seem slightly better than the Ravens in something else.

Falcons have drafted 9 WRs since 2007 and three have produced at least WR2 numbers (Douglas, Julio, Ridley). LRobinson produced WR2 numbers but he did it in Dallas.

Success rate: 33%. When we adjust for draft capital it goes up to 75%.

Roseman became GM in 2010 for Philly. Since then he has drafted 8 WRs and 2 of them have produced at least WR2 numbers (Matthews, Agholor). Riley Cooper was WR30 in 2013.

Success rate: 25%. When we adjust for draft capital it goes up to 50%.

Schneider took over in 2010 (SEA). Since then they have drafted 11 WRs but 1 finished with WR2 numbers or better (Lockett). Tates explosion happened later. Baldwin (UDFA) wasn't counted. DK was close WR33.

Success rate: 9%. When we adjust for DC: 33%. They haven't hit on lottos.

Pats have drafted 12 WRs since '07. Only 1 has produced WR2 or better numbers (Edelman).

Success rate: 8.3%. Adjusted for DC and its 0%.

The saving grace for Harry is he is the only one they've ever invested a 1st in. Only 4 Pats WRs were in Rd 1-3.

Bengals have drafted 17 (!!!) WRs since '07. Only 2 of them have produced WR2 or better numbers during their career in CIN (AJG, Boyd). MJones and Sanu both produced as high-end WR3.

Success rate: 11.7%. Adjusted for DC and its 33.3%.

So after looking at all these other teams, we can see that the Steelers really aren't all that spectacular when it comes to WR development especially with guys who have high-end DC.

They have had multiple OCs and WR coaches so we can't tie the success to a WR guru on staff.

Ultimately this research showed me that the narrative itself is false and reinforced the idea that DC is so vital to WR success. When we look at hit rates for nearly all of these teams, it dramatically increased when the focus was on WRs in Rounds 1-3.

So as you look at Claypool in your rookie drafts, delete this narrative out of your mind. Some GMs are good at identifying talent but it doesn't seem like Pitt is anything special when it comes to doing that with WRs.

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