I can tell you, as one of the few actual experts on how operational manipulation of departmental statistics looks in graphs and reality, that the presentations by the government on COVID19 are littered with warning signs of gaming in order to present a more palatable view.

First there was the mortality rate - called out back in March using the ONS data as the warning trigger and now an accepted truth after the papers subsequently started digging in the same trench later in April.

Second there is the Apple mobility data, which shows increasing traffic, rendering the lockdown less than effective - supported by increasing public evidence of people ignoring measures. This means we have further uncontrolled risk on a sand timer.

Third, testing. We’ve barely done any so there’s a lot of assumption about peaks and troughs and spread and the fabled R. The truth is we don’t know, so every representation by the government is tainted by unreliability.

Fourth, hospital admissions. All of the initial government messaging steered people away from hospitals, GPs, and even 111 to reduce pressure. Like dissuading people from reporting crime by closing offices and not investigating low level offences...

But there’s a second layer: a number of non-critical beds were converted to COVID care and all non-essential interventions suspended. So ICU in some cases has been showing 40% occupation on scorecards but this isn’t a reality reflection.

Overall, there are enough warning markers in place to say it appears the government is managing the numbers rather than managing the pandemic.

It’s a time served British tradition and one in which we are nationally well-versed.

What can we actually say then?

1. Are we over the peak? The data is unreliable so there is no way to make a judgment.

2. How many people died or have been infected? The data is unreliable so there is no way to make a judgment.

3. Is the lockdown working? See 1 and 2.

There’s actually not much difference in the visual appearance of the British COVID19 data and the way manipulated crime stats look - whether they be in the U.K. or Mexico, for example.

Managing optics instead of managing problems always follows a similar method.

One of the key things people miss about the part of behavioural science in this though is:

In the main it is used to nudge and manage people away from the ability to access services in order to minimise recording, resource impacts and unattractive stats.

Anyway, have a nice evening.