The longstanding rule of thumb is that an incumbent, from county commissioner to president, is in deep trouble if he’s polling under 50%, because undecideds usually break toward challengers.

@realDonaldTrump isn’t even breaking 45% nationally and in these swing states. https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1254622107574599682

No wonder he’s such a desperate and unhappy camper.

And the polls don’t take into account voter intensity. The people who will vote against Trump will crawl on broken glass for the chance to take him out in November.