New #NBERday paper out today making the argument I've made, if a bit less aggressively:

Quite weak evidence that state policies actually lead to much social distancing. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27027 

Curiously, they find that COUNTY policies are more effective, while state policies are the LEAST effective.

LOVE this chart!

Most effective policy for REDUCING inter-regional travel?

School closure!

But guess what happened when sta-at-home orders came?

MORE people left the SIP states! #NBERday

Lockdowns make people feel locked up, and so they flee. #NBERday

School closures and emergency declarations reduced cross-county travel.

But SIP orders had no effect on cross-county travel! #NBERday

The ONLY policy that successfully reduced local "mixing"?

Declaring an emergency.

ONLY information can drive local distancing! #NBERday

How do you get people to spend more hours at home?

DECLARE AN EMERGENCY AND PUBLICIZE DEATHS.

SIPs don't have any identifiable effect!
#NBERday

Declaring an emergency (i.e. information) has a durable-and-growing effect on stay-at-home behavior.

SIPs have a very short-run-and-fading effect. #NBERday

Lockdowns don't work, people!

There's no evidence they lead to more social distancing than what you get from other policies, and they may make the reopening problem more complicated by producing tricky perception thresholds! #NBERday