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New #NBERday paper out today making the argument I've made, if a bit less aggressively:
Quite weak evidence that state policies actually lead to much social distancing. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27027
Quite weak evidence that state policies actually lead to much social distancing. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27027
Curiously, they find that COUNTY policies are more effective, while state policies are the LEAST effective.
LOVE this chart!
Most effective policy for REDUCING inter-regional travel?
School closure!
But guess what happened when sta-at-home orders came?
MORE people left the SIP states! #NBERday
Most effective policy for REDUCING inter-regional travel?
School closure!
But guess what happened when sta-at-home orders came?
MORE people left the SIP states! #NBERday
Lockdowns make people feel locked up, and so they flee. #NBERday
School closures and emergency declarations reduced cross-county travel.
But SIP orders had no effect on cross-county travel! #NBERday
But SIP orders had no effect on cross-county travel! #NBERday
The ONLY policy that successfully reduced local "mixing"?
Declaring an emergency.
ONLY information can drive local distancing! #NBERday
Declaring an emergency.
ONLY information can drive local distancing! #NBERday
How do you get people to spend more hours at home?
DECLARE AN EMERGENCY AND PUBLICIZE DEATHS.
SIPs don't have any identifiable effect!
#NBERday
DECLARE AN EMERGENCY AND PUBLICIZE DEATHS.
SIPs don't have any identifiable effect!
#NBERday
Declaring an emergency (i.e. information) has a durable-and-growing effect on stay-at-home behavior.
SIPs have a very short-run-and-fading effect. #NBERday
SIPs have a very short-run-and-fading effect. #NBERday
Lockdowns don't work, people!
There's no evidence they lead to more social distancing than what you get from other policies, and they may make the reopening problem more complicated by producing tricky perception thresholds! #NBERday
There's no evidence they lead to more social distancing than what you get from other policies, and they may make the reopening problem more complicated by producing tricky perception thresholds! #NBERday
