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New #NBERday paper out today making the argument I& #39;ve made, if a bit less aggressively:
Quite weak evidence that state policies actually lead to much social distancing. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27027 ">https://www.nber.org/papers/w2...
Quite weak evidence that state policies actually lead to much social distancing. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27027 ">https://www.nber.org/papers/w2...
Curiously, they find that COUNTY policies are more effective, while state policies are the LEAST effective.
LOVE this chart!
Most effective policy for REDUCING inter-regional travel?
School closure!
But guess what happened when sta-at-home orders came?
MORE people left the SIP states! #NBERday
Most effective policy for REDUCING inter-regional travel?
School closure!
But guess what happened when sta-at-home orders came?
MORE people left the SIP states! #NBERday
Lockdowns make people feel locked up, and so they flee. #NBERday
School closures and emergency declarations reduced cross-county travel.
But SIP orders had no effect on cross-county travel! #NBERday
But SIP orders had no effect on cross-county travel! #NBERday
The ONLY policy that successfully reduced local "mixing"?
Declaring an emergency.
ONLY information can drive local distancing! #NBERday
Declaring an emergency.
ONLY information can drive local distancing! #NBERday
How do you get people to spend more hours at home?
DECLARE AN EMERGENCY AND PUBLICIZE DEATHS.
SIPs don& #39;t have any identifiable effect!
#NBERday
DECLARE AN EMERGENCY AND PUBLICIZE DEATHS.
SIPs don& #39;t have any identifiable effect!
#NBERday
Declaring an emergency (i.e. information) has a durable-and-growing effect on stay-at-home behavior.
SIPs have a very short-run-and-fading effect. #NBERday
SIPs have a very short-run-and-fading effect. #NBERday
