Some quick thoughts on @UNAMAnews' latest report on civilian casualties.

Firstly, let's go through some of the facts.

During the first quarter of 2020, over 533 civilians were killed and 760 were injured. Violence significantly increased in March, following the US-TB signing.

Anti-Govt Elements (AGE) were responsible for 55% of civilian casualties, killing 282 & injuring 428 civilians.

Pro-Got Forces (PGF) were responsible for 32% - killing 198 & injuring 214).

About 10% were attributed to cross-fire or non-attributable.

Dividing responsibility for CIVCAS by main belligerents:

1. Taliban = 39% (504 killed/injured)
2. ISKP = 13% (169 killed/injured).
3. Non-determined AGF = 3% (39 killed/injured)
3. ANDSF = 21% (271 killed/injured).
4. ISAF = 8% (103 killed/injured)
5. Other PGF = 3% (39)

CIVCAS attributed to the Taliban increased by 22% compared to same period last year, largely due to an intense campaign of targeted killings and summary executions.

Targeted killings have been particularly intense in southern provinces such as Kandahar and Helmand.

A couple of points to note here are:

1. TB do not count govt officials working in civilian roles as CIVCAS & hence do not reflect them in their reports on CIVCAS
2. UNAMA does not count TB members in similar roles as CIVCAS. This might be due to opaque nature of TB or political

Pro-Govt Forces caused more than twice as many child casualties as Anti-Govt Elements. Main causes were airstrikes and indirect fire.

While PGF caused few casualties in early part of 2020, this picked up significantly in March after PGF launched more ground and aerial Ops.

Children and women were disproportionately impacted:

Total child casualties were 417 (152 killed & 265 injured) = 32%.
Total women casualties were 168 (60 killed & 108 injured) = 13%.

While such high figures remain egregious & nefarious, it should be noted that these figures reflect a 29% decrease from the same period last year.

They are also the lowest figures we have seen for the period since 2012.

Had it note been for the uptick in violence in March, this period might have seen one of the lowest CIVCAS on record.

The uptick can be attributed to a number of factors:
1. Failure to begin intra-Afghan talks on 10 March
2. Slow pace of prisoner exchange
3. Jockeying for military advantage as prelude to talks
4. Failure to maintain RiV or implement a ceasefire
5. Delays caused by COVID-19

The Govt has been demanding an unconditional ceasefire while the Taliban has refused to allow intra-AFG talks to begin until prisoner exchange has been completed.

Meanwhile, the failure of both sides has meant that hundreds of more AFG civilians have lost their lives or limbs.

Had both sides given the process the urgency it demanded, perhaps we would not have seen these hundreds of civilians lose their lives, limbs or families have their lives shattered.

For every 3 months delay by both sides, we can expect around 1,500 civilians to lose their life & limb.

These are our fathers, mothers and children. Their lives matter and have an irreparable impact on our society. The scars and trauma of this continued will take years to heal.

Both sides need to appreciate that the earlier talks begin, the sooner we can put an end to this madness.

The focus of all sides should be to allow talks to begin as soon as possible, counting days not weeks or months.

With such a process, the first issue needs to be on a RiV so that both sides to resolve their differences while allowing ordinary Afghans to live a relatively normal life.