The Illusion of Pressure: by decreasing 120 day waivers to 45 then 30, a useful tool for pressing (more like: reminding) #Iraq to develop its natural gas sector has become redundant.

Few things to understand/conclude:

(1/7) https://bit.ly/3bHZVuC ">https://bit.ly/3bHZVuC&q...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> #Iraq needs 3-4 years to develop #gas capture capacity and associated infrastructure.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> This will be delayed with the financial toll of #COVID19 and low #oil prices.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> #Iran enjoys a first mover advantage as a gas / power exporter to Iraq. Competitive tariffs too.

(2/7)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> None of #Iraq& #39;s neighbours have matched/underbid Iran& #39;s prices.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> Payments to Iran have been delayed before. There are mechanisms/options to bypass sanctions.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> Iran will utilize continuation of energy supply for short term propaganda and long term economic gains.

(3/7)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> 120 Day waivers did help push Iraq to take measures towards greater #energy security. See my article: https://bit.ly/2KIlgId 

https://bit.ly/2KIlgId&q... class="Emoji" style="height:16px;" src=" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> #US used waivers to press #Iraq for exclusive American business involvement in gas development. Iraq couldn& #39;t afford to concede to demands.

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Missing the long game: Washington’s high-risk energy diplomacy in Iraq

Washington’s foreign relations in the Middle East are often characterized by ebb and flow, tracking the region’s dynamic politics. But when it comes to Iraq, this ebb and flow is especially turbule...

https://bit.ly/2KIlgId

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> US regional allies neighboring Iraq wished to use waivers to export highly priced energy to Iraq. None could underbid Iran& #39;s offer.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> Reducing waiver length turned it to a short sighted political tool. Problem: Iraq& #39;s ruling elite are busy dividing country& #39;s spoils..(5/7)

..last thing they care about (for now) is power provision next summer. Also, they are sure Iranian energy supply will continue anyway.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> Continuing 120 Day waivers as an energy diplomacy tool could& #39;ve supported progress of serious dialogue between #Baghdad & #Washington.

(6/7)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> Also, given US energy firms a strong footing for long term equitable agreements with US & Iraqi govts blessing.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Red circle" aria-label="Emoji: Red circle"> Moreover showing US as a sincere & earnest partner for long term development of Iraq. Not viewed as a pawn in a short sighted geopolitical game with Iran.

(7/7)