Thread by @yesar, The Illusion of Pressure: by decreasing 120 day waivers to 45 then [...]

The Illusion of Pressure: by decreasing 120 day waivers to 45 then 30, a useful tool for pressing (more like: reminding) #Iraq to develop its natural gas sector has become redundant.

Few things to understand/conclude:

(1/7) https://bit.ly/3bHZVuC

US Renews Waiver for Iraq to Import Iranian Electricity, Shortens Time

The United States has renewed a waiver for Iraq to continue importing Iranian electricity, a State Department official said on Sunday, but this time for a shorter period of 30 days, adding that...

https://bit.ly/3bHZVuC

#Iraq needs 3-4 years to develop #gas capture capacity and associated infrastructure.

This will be delayed with the financial toll of #COVID19 and low #oil prices.

#Iran enjoys a first mover advantage as a gas / power exporter to Iraq. Competitive tariffs too.

(2/7)

None of #Iraq's neighbours have matched/underbid Iran's prices.

Payments to Iran have been delayed before. There are mechanisms/options to bypass sanctions.

Iran will utilize continuation of energy supply for short term propaganda and long term economic gains.

(3/7)

120 Day waivers did help push Iraq to take measures towards greater #energy security. See my article: https://bit.ly/2KIlgId

#US used waivers to press #Iraq for exclusive American business involvement in gas development. Iraq couldn't afford to concede to demands.

(4/7)

Missing the long game: Washington’s high-risk energy diplomacy in Iraq

Washington’s foreign relations in the Middle East are often characterized by ebb and flow, tracking the region’s dynamic politics. But when it comes to Iraq, this ebb and flow is especially turbule...

https://bit.ly/2KIlgId

US regional allies neighboring Iraq wished to use waivers to export highly priced energy to Iraq. None could underbid Iran's offer.

Reducing waiver length turned it to a short sighted political tool. Problem: Iraq's ruling elite are busy dividing country's spoils..(5/7)

..last thing they care about (for now) is power provision next summer. Also, they are sure Iranian energy supply will continue anyway.

Continuing 120 Day waivers as an energy diplomacy tool could've supported progress of serious dialogue between #Baghdad & #Washington.

(6/7)

Also, given US energy firms a strong footing for long term equitable agreements with US & Iraqi govts blessing.

Moreover showing US as a sincere & earnest partner for long term development of Iraq. Not viewed as a pawn in a short sighted geopolitical game with Iran.

(7/7)

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