THREAD: What to make of South Korean claims about Kim Jong Un right now?

ROK officials keep saying:

- "there is nothing unusual"
- "communication lines are operating normally"
- there are no "unusual situations"
- etc

But what does that actually mean?

Not much, IMO.

When Kim Jong Il died on December 17, 2011, there were over two days of silence before DPRK state media would tell the world about what happened

During that period of time

1) NK state media continued as normal
2) Nothing unusual detected on the ground in DPRK

Because everything continued as normal, Kim Jong Il’s death came as a complete surprise to foreign intelligence services.

After the announcement, State referred to "press reporting" on his death.

Senior Obama administration officials “acknowledged they were largely bystanders".

South Korea’s intelligence services came under fire for same reasons, with “President Lee Myung-bak in the dark until the North’s announcement” according to Yonhap.

ROK's defense minister was doing a briefing about defense reform when the official NK announcement was made!