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Ferguson et al’s Imperial report set the tone for everyone else. He didn’t think China or even Korea really had their original outbreaks contained. They assumed there would always be leakage. https://twitter.com/chopkickpunch/status/1254670232104255491
Those assumptions look pretty bad in hindsight, now. In both the green or orange line, US and UK have a very low number of cases that are never stamped out before a peak in November. And even if you follow all their advice, it comes back every 90 days. Forever.
These are the countries that more-or-less took these assumptions about eradication to heart, back when they had their first hundred cases. At about the same time Imperial report, Merkel said 70% of the world (and Germans) would get infected.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254347199137239050?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254347199137239050
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254347199137239050?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254347199137239050
The closer to China you were, the more countries acted on instinct and not models. Most had experience with SARS. They didn’t want another epidemic. Period.
For the most part, they acted (very early) in ways that made that future goal a reality.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254340209174441985?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254340209174441985
For the most part, they acted (very early) in ways that made that future goal a reality.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254340209174441985?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254340209174441985
this is where I think we’re within rights to criticize the authors: they were modeling and presenting options. They didn’t even _try_ to model the interventions that wound up working the best.
HK, VN, TW, VN, SG etc travel restrictions not even mentioned
https://twitter.com/chopkickpunch/status/1254672718240157696?s=21 https://twitter.com/chopkickpunch/status/1254672718240157696
HK, VN, TW, VN, SG etc travel restrictions not even mentioned
https://twitter.com/chopkickpunch/status/1254672718240157696?s=21 https://twitter.com/chopkickpunch/status/1254672718240157696
What’s worse, IMO, is that Western modelers *continue* to ignore things like CQ, the single most effective strategy used in Wuhan and maybe the _only_ thing that can bring a country with millions of infections back from the brink
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254297235912683521?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254297235912683521
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254297235912683521?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254297235912683521
Let’s unpack another core assumption that’s being challenged by reality [for reasons we don’t quite know yet]. >20% of NYC got infected, according to that sero survey, yet they haven’t reach max ICU or ventilator capacity.
https://twitter.com/guacamolebio/status/1254679142710128640?s=21 https://twitter.com/guacamolebio/status/1254679142710128640
https://twitter.com/guacamolebio/status/1254679142710128640?s=21 https://twitter.com/guacamolebio/status/1254679142710128640
So now we have situations where more than 20m Americans have been laid off, will soon be on lockdown for as long as most of China was, all for the goal of reducing hospital over-capacity [vs eradication], but somehow NYC had >12k deaths but enough vents...
https://twitter.com/cyberevitas/status/1254451491491938305?s=21 https://twitter.com/cyberevitas/status/1254451491491938305
https://twitter.com/cyberevitas/status/1254451491491938305?s=21 https://twitter.com/cyberevitas/status/1254451491491938305
