Though I’m sceptical about the rumours regarding Kim’s health, in reality I don’t know anymore than the next person. But given the avalanche of commentary on NK’s future, I think there’s a few principles worth keeping in mind. /1

There’s no harm in speculating on post-KJU NK but the biggest failures of policy towards NK have been based on 'collapsism', which is essentially projecting the experience of other countries onto NK rather than analysing what by contrast explains the longevity of NK's system. /2

This approach underpinned years of failed policy in US and at times SK policy towards NK and essentially left Pyongyang to develop its nukes. Also, speculating about NK’s future needs to be based on an analysis of actual structures of power in NK, not solely on ‘geopolitics’. /3

China, SK, US have their interests but they have very little influence on what happens on the ground in NK. There;s much speculation about splits between elites or the Kim family members, yet such approaches are not without their prolems. /4

The NK state is historically monolithic, and personally I think attempts to analyse politics in terms of splits between institutions or doves/hawks are based on analytical frameworks derived from Latin America etc rather than reflective of NK reality. /5

Sure, there are different power bases, etc, but the hybrid state/market political economy serves well the interests of the main constituencies and their interests are in the maintenance of that system. NK is not an economic miracle but it is generating enough income /6

for key constituencies so that an alternative is not considered desirable. In this respect, it also matters less which member of the Kim family is in charge, or even if there is some non-Kim family or collective leadership. It is the maintenance of the system that is important /7

I also don’t see the economic/political basis for inter-Kim family competition in a post-KJU era. I may be wrong but speculation should at least include such analysis of internal political economy dynamics rather than just geopolitics or projecting other countries' experience /8