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I assumed the story to this headline was written by Australians.
I& #39;ll add that this claim about unemployment forecasts is wrong. https://twitter.com/mrJeffHowell/status/1254644180246081536">https://twitter.com/mrJeffHow...
I& #39;ll add that this claim about unemployment forecasts is wrong. https://twitter.com/mrJeffHowell/status/1254644180246081536">https://twitter.com/mrJeffHow...
A paragraph written by two people who, as shown previously, did not understand Treasury& #39;s economic scenarios https://twitter.com/Economissive/status/1249991900624379904">https://twitter.com/Economiss...
Here are the 4 bank *forecasts* and Treasury& #39;s *scenarios*.
The banks are anticipating increased Govt spend. Treasury& #39;s scenarios that have increased Govt funding (and, so, the ones they consider most likely) all have unempl at the bottom of @coughlthom and Luke Malpass& #39;s range.
The banks are anticipating increased Govt spend. Treasury& #39;s scenarios that have increased Govt funding (and, so, the ones they consider most likely) all have unempl at the bottom of @coughlthom and Luke Malpass& #39;s range.
The other scenarios show what might happen if Covid got away on us, which it plainly isn& #39;t, and we had to be in level 4 for six months, and level 3 for six months. (And at no point does it hit 30%.)
We are currently on track to be in level 4 and level 3 the same amount of time or less than in Treasury& #39;s scenario 1.
That pink line? That& #39;s jobless numbers. There was some public comment about how it shot up 30,000.
But that was LESS than almost all forecasts/scenarios thought (noting it& #39;s early days). Forecasts and scenarios that already account for the wage subsidy.
But that was LESS than almost all forecasts/scenarios thought (noting it& #39;s early days). Forecasts and scenarios that already account for the wage subsidy.
(The jobless index I& #39;ve marked doesn& #39;t account for population growth, including the large influx in net migration in the last couple of months, so will indicate a slightly larger than increase in actual unemployment rates.)
https://twitter.com/Economissive/status/1249996546340343809">https://twitter.com/Economiss...
