A lot of people have been talking about the Israeli response to COVID-19, especially as Israel has recently relaxed many of its restrictions. In a short THREAD I hope to shed some light on what exactly is going on.

Basic background on Israel: Small country of 9.2 million people, about the size of New Jersey, surrounded by Lebanon & Syria (enemy states), Jordan & Egypt (cold peace), and Palestinian territories (Gaza and West Bank).

Israel is a very young nation (median age of 30.2) so a herd immunity approach would be conceivable, but that's not what the government is going for. A full lockdown started on March 25, a month after the first diagnosed case and 5 days after the first COVID-19 death.

The lockdown was strict and prohibited people from leaving their house for a distance of more than 300 feet (100 meter), except for buying groceries and essential work. Companies were allowed to stay open at up to 15% capacity. Restaurant delivery was allowed but not takeaway.

The lockdown was effective. Hospitals have not been overrun, the number of new cases has been gradually declining, and testing has increased from ~1000 tests a day a month ago to more than 10,000 tests a day now.

Sadly, 201 people have died and 99 are in serious condition.

As you'd expect, the lockdown also crushed the economy. Estimates say that 1 million people, 25% of the workforce, are out of work, up from <4% in February. Small business owners have been hit especially hard since they don't get unemployment benefits and have received limited

government support. The government is heavy pressure to open the economy and allow people to get back on their feet. On Thursday it announced a set of new policies which partially open of the economy. The goal is to keep the virus contained while allowing some normal life.

Everyone is required to wear masks in public. Small stores and barbershops can open if they adhere to strict distancing rules. Restaurants can now offer takeaway and businesses can go up to 30% capacity. See more details here: https://twitter.com/gdibner/status/1254360944437854215?s=20

Malls are closed. Synagogues, a significant spreading vector, are closed. Schools (except special education) are closed. IKEA has also been opened, though that decision has been quite controversial as similarly sized businesses (and smaller ones) have not been allowed.

The government will monitor the situation and plans to continue relaxing the limitations in a few weeks if there isn't a spike in cases. On Friday there were 245 new cases in Israel and the number is declining. The goal is to keep it down until tracing of all cases is possible.

The Prime Minister (Netanyahu) has said that Israel is looking at Austria as a model - Austria is 1-2 weeks ahead of Israel in case decline and the Austrian Chancellor (Kurz) is a personal friend of Netanyahu. There is talk of opening schools but no specific plan to do so.

These are all facts. Now a bit of analysis - The public sentiment in Israel is that the country has averted the crisis and it's time to get back to normal. Anecdotally people no longer feel limited and are meeting each other quite freely, with relaxed social distancing.

Many worry that the pendulum has swung from extreme pessimism and lockdown to lax optimism, without stopping in the middle. In a few weeks we'll be able to see how well it's all going. /FIN