China got a plan for NK & so status quo with a new leader. There is no way SK ever can unite with NK under China’s watch. Not in its security & economic interest. NK is cut off from world & dependent on China & China can get resources. Not giving that up to have the US next door. https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1254551523490541568">https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers...

Mao understood this during the Korean War while the Americans underestimated motivation from China side & so suffered when the Chinese came over & invaded (a lot of Chinese soldiers died of course & ill equipped but they were willing to do that to prevent the US push upward).

Study history of the Korean War & why this issue cannot be resolved like East & West Germany & China wants North Korea in its status quo. NK is weak & poor & not a threat to have next door. But not SK with the US military. Note the economic growth diff b/n US & China allies.

North Korea is China key & only official ally. And one it will not give up & won’t be up to Trump but Xi on what happens & do status quo.

Disclaimer: I am not a geopolitical expert & just analyse this on what I think rational security interests of China.

Let me put this another way, if South Korea managed to be united with NK under leadership of Moon & that would be an equivalent of: China military being in Mexico & next door to the USA. No way that would be tolerated.

And so status quo can only be changed through ...

Key stakeholders in North Korea:

China
Russia
South Korea
USA
Japan

They all have interests in the outcome. This can also another geopolitical flashpoint in Asia. And a risk to watch for everyone in Asia.