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China got a plan for NK & so status quo with a new leader. There is no way SK ever can unite with NK under China’s watch. Not in its security & economic interest. NK is cut off from world & dependent on China & China can get resources. Not giving that up to have the US next door. https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1254551523490541568
Mao understood this during the Korean War while the Americans underestimated motivation from China side & so suffered when the Chinese came over & invaded (a lot of Chinese soldiers died of course & ill equipped but they were willing to do that to prevent the US push upward).
Study history of the Korean War & why this issue cannot be resolved like East & West Germany & China wants North Korea in its status quo. NK is weak & poor & not a threat to have next door. But not SK with the US military. Note the economic growth diff b/n US & China allies.
North Korea is China key & only official ally. And one it will not give up & won’t be up to Trump but Xi on what happens & do status quo.
Disclaimer: I am not a geopolitical expert & just analyse this on what I think rational security interests of China.
Disclaimer: I am not a geopolitical expert & just analyse this on what I think rational security interests of China.
Let me put this another way, if South Korea managed to be united with NK under leadership of Moon & that would be an equivalent of: China military being in Mexico & next door to the USA. No way that would be tolerated.
And so status quo can only be changed through ...
And so status quo can only be changed through ...
Key stakeholders in North Korea:
China
Russia
South Korea
USA
Japan
They all have interests in the outcome. This can also another geopolitical flashpoint in Asia. And a risk to watch for everyone in Asia.
China
Russia
South Korea
USA
Japan
They all have interests in the outcome. This can also another geopolitical flashpoint in Asia. And a risk to watch for everyone in Asia.
