Inspired by those pics on how the home field advantage is starting to fade in big European Leagues, I wanted to look at the Moroccan League and see how's that looking. While in the 5 big European Leagues, the home advantage effect is dropping by 4% over the last 24 seasons ...

In Morocco, the home advantage factor is still present but it's starting gradually to weakened. However, the effect is not declining yet but it can be during the next few years. How is that possible ? Let's look deeply in the following thread..

I scraped the data of the last 10 seasons to quantify the home team's advantage in the Moroccan League. For each season starting 2010/2011, I looked over the 240 league matches and determine the % of home team's win, draw and away team's win.

In the early 2010/2011 Moroccan Football, about 36.3% of games were won by the home team. 39.2% of games were drawn and 24.6% won by the away team. During the current season (19/20), with 151 games played: home teams secured 65 wins (43%) and the away teams won 36 games (23.9%).

The away win's curve is progressing each season while the curve for draws is starting to decrease. This means that the gap between both away win curve and draw curve is being smaller. The trend is suggesting that in the next years, a move from draws towards away wins.

The home win's curve is progressing going from 36.3% in 2010/2011 to 43.0% in 2019/2020. In opposite to big European Leagues, the home field advantage isn't disappearing and we'll look at the main reasons afterwords.

In Algeria, the finding around the home advantage aren't the same. Wheareas the gap between away win curve and draw curve is reducing as in Morocco, the home win curve is declining and the facts shown about European Leagues maybe true for the Algerian League but in a slow rythm.

Over the last seasons, Algerian League saw 58.3% of home team win in 2010/2011. This number went down to 50.4% last season. After 173 games this season, home winning rate is at 50.9%. Away team win curve has progressed : it went from 13.3% in 2010/2011 to 22% this season.

So the first question that hits me is why Algerian League seems to fit with the big European Leagues concerning the home advantage and Moroccan isn't? One of the reasons remains in the goals scored in each league.

Here are the goals scored per game in each season of the Moroccan and Algerian Leagues. I also plotted an average of the goals scored by home and away teams per game.

As it looks like, scoring for either side has fluctuated in Algerian League. Visitor goals has remained constant floating mostly between 0.69 and 0.8 goals per game. Home goals have fallen from 1.45 to 1.35. Avg difference has fallen to about 0.55 goals per game for actual season