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Correct. Overconfidence is not only bad strategy, it negates the power of pure ideology and existential fear of a loss of status, which will be driving Trump's side, plus the reality of what that side is willing to do to win: mass disenfranchisement, accepting foreign help etc. https://twitter.com/radiofreetom/status/1254501908011778048
Trumpism isn't some new thing. It's an ongoing battle over American identity, which millions of conservative white Christians view as slipping away from them. Trump will win a majority of white voters. Full stop. And nonwhite voters will face epic disenfranchisement.
This former Trump supporter summarizes the stakes. Trump is just an avatar for what amounts to an insurgency against cultural change. Read @robertpjones @Edsall @stuartpstevens & others to understand it. https://twitter.com/davidmweissman/status/1254489588078448640
Here's a great @Edsall piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/opinion/trump-white-voters.html
Here's some @Gallup data: https://news.gallup.com/poll/248525/non-college-whites-affinity-gop-trump.aspx
Also recommend @RonBrownstein @jbouie and of course @AdamSerwer and there are plenty more. Here's a good Brownstein piece on Trump voters https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/trumps-outbreak-response-and-2020-election/610435/
And this @AdamSerwer classic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/the-cruelty-is-the-point/572104/
More great follows who write about this topic: @michaelharriot @DrJasonJohnson @TiffanyDCross @jelani9 and many more (my brain is broken -- time for a nap!) And not for nothing but I did write a lil book on the subject as well... 
https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062880109/the-man-who-sold-america/
https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062880109/the-man-who-sold-america/
