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1/ I've been watching North Korea for 20+ years. I've seen its leaders vanish from public view for weeks at a time, only to reappear without explanation. I don't side with any line of speculation. It might be weeks before we know.
Stalin's cause of death is still debated.
Stalin's cause of death is still debated.
2/ But the very passage of time is probative of something. Despite Kim's best efforts to seal the borders (contra wishful-but-baseless prognostications that he'd be a Swiss-educated reformer) N Koreans are spreading the same rumors that we are. http://www.asiapress.org/rimjin-gang/2020/04/politics/resident-response/.
3/ Those rumors undercut the image of vitality & invincibility that the state cultivates so carefully. If it put a quick end to them with one Kim-looking-at-things photo op, it absolutely would. Each day they proliferate adds weight to our speculation that something is off.
4/ After that, you're on your own. He could be dead, incapacitated, recovering, or under guard by rogue generals. He had premised his legitimacy on enriching the Pyongyang oligarchy. Since 2016, sanctions have drained away their wealth, despite Trump's half-hearted enforcement.
5/ We should not wish for Kim's recovery. He draws a messianic mission from his lineage. His personality is uniquely impulsive & dangerous.
https://freekorea.us/2015/08/13/kim-jong-un-deterrence-and-the-psychological-evidence/
See also, his murder of his own half-brother with VX nerve agent in a crowded airport in a friendly country.
https://freekorea.us/2015/08/13/kim-jong-un-deterrence-and-the-psychological-evidence/
See also, his murder of his own half-brother with VX nerve agent in a crowded airport in a friendly country.
6/ Also, next time a pundit shouts "but loose nukes!," ask him about Al Kibar (google it). Or N Korean help to Syria's chemical weapons, or Iran's missiles. Or its cybercrime threat.
Or ask a North Korean. Their status quo is already nightmarish enough to portend ill for us.
Or ask a North Korean. Their status quo is already nightmarish enough to portend ill for us.
7/ The interruption of that mission & the crimes that promote it could save millions. Kim's death or incapacitation would delay or cancel his worst plans. And anecdotal reporting of North Koreans' sentiments suggests that the Cult of Kim has a half-life of one Kim.
8/ The list of potential replacements for KJU isn't comforting--it reads like Tagomi's dossier from The Man in the High Castle. Pundits will search in vain for hopes that one is a reformer, as they once did with KJU. But no true reformer rises in a system based on terror.
9/ But for various reasons, none is a credible heir to Kim Il-sung's inheritance, the "Paektu Bloodline," either.
The best we can hope for is a successor who is more cautious, w/ less domestic support, & under more pressure for a fundamental change of national direction.
The best we can hope for is a successor who is more cautious, w/ less domestic support, & under more pressure for a fundamental change of national direction.
10/But whether KJU reappears or not, our approach should be the same--to increase short-term economic & political pressure, while offering an off-ramp to survival & prosperity, in the form of a deal for sequenced disarmament, reform & phased reunification. https://freekorea.us/2019/02/28/how-to-negotiate-a-lasting-peace-in-korea-feed-the-hungry-and-heal-the-sick/
Such a non-catastrophic outcome is exceeding unlikely if Kim lives. It enters the realm of possibility if he does not.
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