THREAD: We are approaching the second wave of the #LebanonProtests, which will likely resemble #October17 in some ways, but will also distinguish itself and test people& #39;s resolve in others. A few things to expect and keep an eye on:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Downwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Downwards arrow">
1- The grievances and living conditions that brought people to the streets initially are even worse now. This will be reflected in protesters& #39; revolutionary tactics, which will surely be more violent and with clear targets: banks, public institutions, politicians& #39; houses, etc.
2- Nonviolent means of protesting are unrealistic and frankly useless at this point. Calling for pacifism signals a lack of understanding of the nature of the state. In other words, elites will adopt any means necessary to survive. The objective is overthrowing them, not reform.
3- The same counter-revolutionary tactics will be deployed: divisive discourse, sectarianizing (M14 v M8), blaming protesters, liberal propaganda, violence, stalling, co-opting, fearmongering, finger pointing, etc.

People are familiar with these. The real danger is clientelism.
4- As econ conditions worsen and austerity measures add up, most vulnerable become easier targets for parties. They& #39;ll be easier to buy off.

Some will accept, but others are tired of those games. On TV, many said they didn& #39;t want the 400 thou in aid by the gov. Simply, people...
5- ...realize that clientelism is unsustainable and will never cover all their subsistence needs from food to healthcare, rent, electricity, school, etc.

The neoliberal rentier model needs to be burried. A productive economy with universal social safety nets need to replace it.
6- So how do we (protesters) get what we want considering they& #39;re stronger (arms+$)? A total victory (overthrowing) is unlikely, but progressive concessions and small victories are possible.

We need to be better organized. Neighborhood councils and alternative unions are key.
7- Why is it so important? Because that& #39;s how we survive the psychological & physical blows. The solidarity of our communities is the backbone to our struggle.

Reach out to existing grassroots groups (contact me if you don& #39;t know any you trust) or organize with those around you.
8- The only Arab revolutions who were relatively successful in achieving political transitions are Sudan and Tunisia. What distinguishes them? They had strong grassroots-based organizational structures, particularly workers& #39; unions.

We& #39;re in the process of building that. Join.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✊" title="Raised fist" aria-label="Emoji: Raised fist">
You can follow @NadimElkak.
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