THREAD: We are approaching the second wave of the #LebanonProtests, which will likely resemble #October17 in some ways, but will also distinguish itself and test people's resolve in others. A few things to expect and keep an eye on:

1- The grievances and living conditions that brought people to the streets initially are even worse now. This will be reflected in protesters' revolutionary tactics, which will surely be more violent and with clear targets: banks, public institutions, politicians' houses, etc.

2- Nonviolent means of protesting are unrealistic and frankly useless at this point. Calling for pacifism signals a lack of understanding of the nature of the state. In other words, elites will adopt any means necessary to survive. The objective is overthrowing them, not reform.

3- The same counter-revolutionary tactics will be deployed: divisive discourse, sectarianizing (M14 v M8), blaming protesters, liberal propaganda, violence, stalling, co-opting, fearmongering, finger pointing, etc.

People are familiar with these. The real danger is clientelism.

4- As econ conditions worsen and austerity measures add up, most vulnerable become easier targets for parties. They'll be easier to buy off.

Some will accept, but others are tired of those games. On TV, many said they didn't want the 400 thou in aid by the gov. Simply, people...

5- ...realize that clientelism is unsustainable and will never cover all their subsistence needs from food to healthcare, rent, electricity, school, etc.

The neoliberal rentier model needs to be burried. A productive economy with universal social safety nets need to replace it.

6- So how do we (protesters) get what we want considering they're stronger (arms+$)? A total victory (overthrowing) is unlikely, but progressive concessions and small victories are possible.

We need to be better organized. Neighborhood councils and alternative unions are key.

7- Why is it so important? Because that's how we survive the psychological & physical blows. The solidarity of our communities is the backbone to our struggle.

Reach out to existing grassroots groups (contact me if you don't know any you trust) or organize with those around you.

8- The only Arab revolutions who were relatively successful in achieving political transitions are Sudan and Tunisia. What distinguishes them? They had strong grassroots-based organizational structures, particularly workers' unions.

We're in the process of building that. Join.