I'm surprised at the giant blind spot so many analysts have about America's suburbs, which seems to be generated from a stagnated understanding of suburban demographics. Here, in this @538politics piece, is a great example of how this stagnated perception of suburban demographics
affects political analysis (profoundly). And I'm highlighting this piece by @baseballot but he is by no means the only 1 doing this- pretty much everyone is. Here is the claim and the otherwise fine analysis of primary turnout it appears in https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/historic-turnout-in-2020-not-so-far/
There is this prevailing (and flawed) assumption that suburban realignment, esp since 2017, is driven by former (white) Republicans "trying a new party on for size" and that w/o this, former R strongholds could not be flipping to Ds. 1st off, party reg data shows that much of the
exodus from the GOP occurs BEFORE '16 & analyses do not suggest much, if w modest declines after that cycle (based on states w party reg). Rs carried these districts in 2016 w the help of these Rs. They lost these districts in '18 though primarily through https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/28/first-time-ever-there-are-fewer-registered-republicans-than-independents/
⬆️participation of OTHER white voters in the suburbs, who became motivated to vote (esp in non-prez elections) after Trump. But that's not all! America's suburbs are transforming bc they are no longer populated exclusively by whites, they have diversified significantly. That
So yes, the suburbs flipped from Red to Blue in 2018 BUT its not primarily (& def not ONLY) because of GOP voters voting for Ds, its bc the demographics have changed & now Dem-friendly voters (Ds and Is, whites and non-whites) are showing up. https://newrepublic.com/article/156402/hate-ballot
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