Read on Twitter
COVID19 - India cases - some thoughts.
As of today, India has less number of COVID19 cases compared to other major coutries. It can be because:
1. We are testing less (like all claim)
2. We are immune (no science)
3. We acted early (maybe)
4. We are behind the curve (don't know)
As of today, India has less number of COVID19 cases compared to other major coutries. It can be because:
1. We are testing less (like all claim)
2. We are immune (no science)
3. We acted early (maybe)
4. We are behind the curve (don't know)
What do we know about COVID19 for sure:
1. It originated in China
2. It spread as people traveled
3. It was brought into India by people who came from abroad
If these are accepted then here is one way to look at or explain number of cases in India.
1. It originated in China
2. It spread as people traveled
3. It was brought into India by people who came from abroad
If these are accepted then here is one way to look at or explain number of cases in India.
Hypotheses:
1. India - China travel is limited to few sectors and trades and almost negligible tourism. And hence, primary infections are less.
2. Infections from other countries were less when India banned air travel from EU and other countries.
1. India - China travel is limited to few sectors and trades and almost negligible tourism. And hence, primary infections are less.
2. Infections from other countries were less when India banned air travel from EU and other countries.
India China travel:
Look at the direct flights available from Wuhan alone. Though there is no Italy or French destinations here, I read that there were flights between Wuhan and France & Italy.
Almost every place in that list is affected directly.
Now compare India-China travel
Look at the direct flights available from Wuhan alone. Though there is no Italy or French destinations here, I read that there were flights between Wuhan and France & Italy.
Almost every place in that list is affected directly.
Now compare India-China travel
When I worked in China, there were four major groups of people who traveled to China.
1. IT crowd - mainly Shanghai
2. Super Traders looking to purchase
3. Diamond & Jewlery traders
4. Indian whose companies had China manufacturing
Hence, I wondered: https://twitter.com/hariiyengaar/status/1236937863201263616?s=20
1. IT crowd - mainly Shanghai
2. Super Traders looking to purchase
3. Diamond & Jewlery traders
4. Indian whose companies had China manufacturing
Hence, I wondered: https://twitter.com/hariiyengaar/status/1236937863201263616?s=20
1. If India makes primary travel history data of COVID19 anonymised, this can be checked. For now, it remains in the 'unknown.'
2. Major areas affected: Gujarat and Maharashtra even excluding the Jamaat related infections could be related to India China travel.
2. Major areas affected: Gujarat and Maharashtra even excluding the Jamaat related infections could be related to India China travel.
If we assume that India imported many cases from Europe and USA, then how come Bengaluru and Chennai, two IT hubs in Indi are not severly affected?
Karnataka has 501 cases.
TN excluding 'single source' is not alarming.
Karnataka has 501 cases.
TN excluding 'single source' is not alarming.
Bear in mind, these are all till 23rd March.
What happened in India after 23rd March is entirely ours and cannot be blamed on anyone else.
What happened in India after 23rd March is entirely ours and cannot be blamed on anyone else.
Hypothesis 2 - Infections from other countries were less when India banned air travel from EU and other countries.
18 March: India closes air travel from EU
UK total cases as on 17th March:
Italy: 31506
UK: 1950
What is the probability? https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/government-prohibits-entry-of-passengers-from-eu-turkey-uk-from-march-18/articleshow/74657194.cms?from=mdr
18 March: India closes air travel from EU
UK total cases as on 17th March:
Italy: 31506
UK: 1950
What is the probability? https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/government-prohibits-entry-of-passengers-from-eu-turkey-uk-from-march-18/articleshow/74657194.cms?from=mdr
23 March: India closes all air travel including USA
USA cases: 33453
Again, what is the probability? https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/03/27/india-extends-ban-on-international-flights-until-april-14/
USA cases: 33453
Again, what is the probability? https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/03/27/india-extends-ban-on-international-flights-until-april-14/
While we analyse number of covid case or overall infection rate in India, there can be many factors like strain of virus, R0 (no one knows what our R0 is now), population density, family size etc.
But I think, the hypotheses that I put out should be tested with data and either proven or disproved.
As it stands, it is just another speculation as it has no data basis.
As it stands, it is just another speculation as it has no data basis.
