“Long gold as a systemic hedge has generated significant alpha vs shorting the S&P 500, between 2012-Present” https://twitter.com/taytayllp/status/1254367017911623681

“Long silver as a systemic hedge has generated significant alpha vs shorting 2x the S&P 500, between 2012-Present” https://twitter.com/financialtailor/status/1254384253586022400?s=21 https://twitter.com/financialtailor/status/1254384253586022400

I easily could’ve joined the long physical gold crowd in 2009-2011. I didn’t, largely by luck: I befriended a Macro guy in 2011..he was looking to short gold (he did by 2012/2013). That puzzled me, so I researched gold, & long gold lost its luster; too bad I didn’t short it oops.

All these smart guys were pitching gold back then, remember ? So I was intrigued by Macro dude, who was looking to short gold, because he sounded crazy, super contrarian. But he sounded like he knew what he was talking about too. Confident but not arrogant... and he was right.

Trickier times today. Shorting here might very well be right risk vs reward on a trading basis, but as part of a emerging bull market in them. Different setup from 8 years ago. Hard to be short and hold here, without the perma gold bulls as conference fixtures as they were then.

Trickier times today vs 8 years ago, too, on the long and hold side: crypto was not around back then, at least not as a readily available alternative “hedge” against monetary/fiscal chicanery. So this has to factor into your analysis if you’re long like bull.

I respect all of them, and no offense to them, but they will die, and the preferences of that generation will die with them. You need to believe that younger people will rush to the PMs as they did: https://twitter.com/blakefox7/status/1254392580323840007?s=21 https://twitter.com/blakefox7/status/1254392580323840007

6-8 years ago, if I bashed gold, it would be unpopular and met with fierce resistance. Look at the original tweet in this thread, and how many times it was liked. Probably suggests we are in a bull market that has some legs, notwithstanding corrections are par for the course.

Someone asked me for advice on gold. I did not respond. things I would consider, with no unique answers:

Assume gold is in a bull market with some legs, then

1. How to think about price ? And price against what reference fx ?
2. Time/duration/holding period
3. Instrument