#IndiaFightsCOVID19 The paristhiti would have taught to many that we have hidden from Covid longer than we could afford ( Not IT guys who are cocoons) BTW, I am also IT but not differ from Stay at home (with no end in sight) groups.
The virus is lethal - Accept
The virus is lethal - Accept
Only herd immunity is protection - immunity is linked to a combination of health and age - Accept
We can't wait even one more month unless we want to take India back to 1970s economy with 2020s population - One can debate the years, but not the idea
We have more information today than we had in, say the beginning of March 1st week.
Now we know Old (65%) are vulnerable
Old+ Obesity very
Old+ Two comorbidity very
Old + Obesity + 2 morbidity - very very
Vaccines will give immunity to all including the old.
No debate.
Not expected to be in the market before 2021 at the earliest. (Unless China sells spurious ones that will add cost and problems)
If a country plans to acquire herd immunity though contracting the virus the percentage who get infected and cured must be about 80%
(R0 is about 5.7)
UK failed because when it decided that route the R0 was calculated at 2.2. Due to wrong quantification of data. Beyond control
But the acquired percentage will be devastating to the population.
The data shows the devastation degree is more in older country and less in younger country.
Italy median age 47. US 37
India -27. India will see less fatality than US in % (not in numbers)
This virus is lethal. Repeating once again.
At R0 of 5.7, 80 % of population should become immune (get Corona and be cured and carry antibody)
In India, the population below the age of 45 is about 80%
And the fatality under 45 is very low.
Price Vs Value.
The society should decide if it is willing to accept a low fatality rate, of say one in 20000? at a population of 100 cr, this number will be high. But % low
If we start with, not a life should be lost (like liberals do) we will end up paying with exorbitant interest.
Mortality is a fact of any society.
The earlier we relax lockdown to all below the age of 30 (may be women upto 35 as they carry only fraction of risk compared to men) across all Industries, we are out of it. Our demography is a vaccine against Covid.
Not utilizing the Demography vaccine is not smart.
The country should run. Individually we will hear few heart rending stories. But what must be done, must be done.
Btw. My risk is about 15 times that of a person of 30 year old. If that helps.
Failing to break this lockdown impass, a thread.. https://twitter.com/BMTheEquityDesk/status/1254077957896695808?s=20
The real tailspin in economy is the risk
In short what this thread says is
Our revenue is variable and expenses are not
Our tax collection is plummeting. Our ordinary expenses are same and extraordinary exp - Corona support is being added to the burden.
Every responsible citizen should vow to reduce exp and produce more and probably pay more tax.
Better to pay more tax by earning more
Wake up before it is too late.
You can follow @dwimidhaM.
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