Tensions building in #SouthYemen for some time. The decision to announce self-rule best to be viewed in context. STC have been briefing the international community on the imminent threat of escalation for several weeks. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-52428998

Limited/no progress on Riyadh Agreement. Yes it was ambitious from the start. But it also failed to have the proper int’l backing to make implementation happen. That required political will. A central element of the STC message was ‘internationalising’ the Riyadh Agreement.

In particular the STC raised concerns with military movements outside of the Riyadh Agreement. The build up of troops in Abyan moving towards Aden posed an imminent risk to stability according to STC assessments. This was raised to the UN Security Council.

In parallel a worsening humanitarian situation. Things were already dire. Then there was COVID and efforts taken in the South to limit the impact of a pandemic, which would be catastrophic across #Yemen. The STC were the first to call for a ceasefire to focus efforts on COVID.

Despite these calls for a ceasefire, the Houthis continued fighting on the Southern front line. On the international stage the STC were conspicuously absent from UN track in implementing a nationwide ceasefire. UN Envoy omitted the South in his briefing to UNSC on 16 April.

On 21 April there were deadly floods in Yemen, with #Aden badly hit. Crisis on top of crisis. With already stretched resources, Southerners faced with dealing with the aftermath of floods that damaged properties and threatened the outbreak of cholera.

The government’s incompetence in financial mgt is known to all eg unpaid civil servant salaries, corruption etc. But many point to a form of ‘collective punishment’ against the South by deliberately turning off basic services. For days folks had no electricity across the South.

All week I’ve heard directly from Southerners about their growing discontent with the situation on the ground. People want the basics to live and deal with the consequences of conflict, disease and lack of aid. It felt looking from the outside that a tipping was reached.