1/Fascinating read from resident $TSLAQ intellect and conspirary theorist Montana Skeptic; a man with 1) a remarkable track record of being consistently wrong on everything $TSLA and 2) an impressive ability to sound convincing in the process. https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4339781-teslas-transformation-chinese-company-seems-unstoppable

2/The latest take? $TSLA will be successful in China. So successful, in fact, that they will soon hit 5k/week production from GF3 phase 1 and this will increase when Phase 2 is complete. The long term plan, per Montana, is to export MiC $TSLA vehicles to other Asian countries.

3/The problem, according to Montana, is threefold: 1) The agremeent with China won't allow $TSLA to repatriate any profits from Chinese operations. This, of course, is nonsense. As a fully owned foreign enterprise, $TSLA's profits can be repatriated without prial approval.

4/But...$TSLA is required to deposit revenues from GF3 in a Chinese bank til it pays off its local debt per Clause 11 of the factory loan agreement.

All that means is the Chinese banks want collateral until their loans are repaid in full.

5/ The total amount of the loan is about $1.5B USD, with principal repaid over 5 yrs. The land agreement is for 50 years. Do the math.

6/ Montana's 2nd imaginary problem is China's ambition to be an EV leader. Montana predicts that $TSLA will design a car in China and export it globally, giving the Chinese close ties to a premium global brand. He also predicts that $TSLA will source 100% of its production in

7/So the government can control production.

First off, I agree with both of these predictions. But $TSLA won't do this for the Chinese government, but rather, because it makes sense.

8/By sourcing local supplies, cost efficiencies are found throughout the entire supply chain. Costs decline, profits increase.

9/By designing a car in China and making it there, $TSLA will get closer to the Chinese consumer (largest car market globally) AND benefit from huge cost advantages, allowing this car to be priced much lower and completely disrupt a different, larger segment of the market.

10/Montana's 3rd imaginary problem is Fremont. Ah yes, we can't have a $TSLAQ article without some good ol fashioned demand cliff FUD. You see, with GF3 producing so many cars for Asia, this will drive overcapacity in Fremont.

11/In fact, per Montana, $TSLA will only sell 250k cars from Fremont in 2020. $TSLA delivered 88k cars in Q1. GF3 delivered around 15k. In Q1 alone, $TSLA delivered 73k cars from Fremont. According to this fool, $TSLA will only deliver 177k more cars in the other 9 months of 2020

12/Folks...you can't make this shit up. And the sad part? Because most $TSLAQ knuckleheads trap themselves in an information prison of stupidity known as "the List", they will never be exposed to a different perspective or opinion. King dipshit @TESLAcharts sees to that.

13/In conclusion, its interesting to see a prominent $TSLAQ figurehead concede that $TSLA will be wildy successful in China. Also interesting how the conspiracy theory is woven into the narrative. When all else fails, its fraud...right $TSLAQ?

14/But alas, the more things change, the more they stay the same. On the topic of GF4, Montana says: "The larger question would seem to be whether Tesla will ever actually begin to build the factory."

Because hey...$TSLAQ loves those mud pits.

@threadreaderapp unroll please.