Tropical convective forcing over E. Africa/W. Indian Ocean past 5 days evidence of new MJO wave. Warm Indian Ocean waters, w/ 850mb convergence, suggest continued MJO growth. Models argue for limited east movement. Current Kelvin wave over W. Pac aided by lingering El Nino...

& warm W. Pac waters suggests continued lingering El Nino, or W. Pac tropical forcing, may limit Indian Ocean/Indonesia forcing going forward into May. OLR projections suggest eastward progression of the MJO to Indonesia towards mid May. They also suggest enhanced OLR...

once wave reaches the W. Pacific, again suggesting continued tropical convection there/El Nino influence. But skepticism is needed given the warm Indian Ocean & negative PDO, suggestive of tendencies towards a La Nina regime. Monitor the evolution of ...

tropical convection over Indian Ocean & eastward progression. Feedback over the U.S. once it reaches Indonesia this time of year argues for NE Pac jet extension & W. U.S. trough, bringing potential for severe weather pattern to U.S. Great Plains. Potential exists w/ MJO wave by..

mid/late May for an active severe weather pattern across the Central U.S./Great Plains should Indian Ocean tropical convection take control and progress further east. But W. Pac tropical forcing or lingering El Nino feedback will need to fade. I'd take a great ...

deal of skepticism towards model forecasts for mid to late May. Most will be biased towards ridging over the western states, given recent trend of W. Pac tropical forcing. But if the new MJO wave grows stronger over the Indian Ocean, these model projections will shift towards...

western U.S. troughing for mid to late May. It's a low confidence idea, but worth monitoring. Pacific Ocean is in a transition between a fading El Nino, neutral, or a potential La Nina, & currently working out the smaller mechanisms. Massive uncertainty going into mid/late May!