A thread with some math illustrating why congregate shelters are bad when it comes to #COVID19 spread. Ready?

At a City Council hearing last week @NYCDHS reported that as of 4/21 there were a 556 known people infected with #COVID19 from its shelters. But there’s more... (1/)
453 of those 556 (81.5%) were from the *single adult shelters* whereas only 103 were from the family shelters. Why is this notable? Because single adults account for only 30% of NYC shelter residents (or, to be generous, 46.5% of shelter residents who are adults). (2/)
Important note on NYC: adult shelters are generally congregate, with an average of 8-12 unrelated individuals sharing a dorm. Family shelters offer private dwellings. (3/)
Does this prove causation? No. But the fact that 81.5% of known sheltered #COVID19 cases are among single individuals that mainly are in congregate settings, even though such individuals make up a minority of NYC’s sheltered population seems highly suggestive. (4/)
Of course, science also tells us that congregate settings are potential tinder boxes for spread of infection including #COVID19. (End)
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